Weekly Forex Forecast (January 23-27, 2023)

Today’s weekly Forex forecast covers the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and S&P 500 (SPX500).

Several currency pairs are on the verge of breaking out, and the technicals for markets like USDJPY and SPX couldn’t be better.

Watch the video and scroll down to view the charts to prepare for next week.

EURUSD Forecast

EURUSD is still coiling between 1.0780 and 1.0870, two levels I mentioned in last week’s forecast.

It will take a daily and weekly close above the December 2016 trend line at 1.0870 to open up higher levels.

One such level I’m eyeing if we get the bullish break is 1.1120.

Alternatively, a daily close below 1.0870 and 1.0700 would signal weakness and expose previous range lows at 1.0480.

However, EURUSD longs are still favored on breakouts, given the uptrend since September.

The only way I’ll flip short on the euro is on a daily close below 1.0700.

GBPUSD Forecast

GBPUSD is edging closer to a breakout above 1.2450, which would open up higher levels like 1.2660.

We saw the pound close above 1.2300 this week. So that was our first sign of renewed strength from GBPUSD.

However, it will take a daily close above 1.2450 to confirm the bullish breakout and open up targets like 1.2660.

Alternatively, bearish price action from 1.2450 or a close below 1.2300 would suggest weakness.

Keep in mind that any move lower would also have to take out trend line support at 1.2110.

Like EURUSD, I’m still leaning slightly bullish on the GBPUSD, given the short-term uptrend.

USDJPY Forecast

We saw USDJPY retest the confluence of resistance at 130.60 again on Friday.

It’s a level I’ve mentioned a few times in recent weeks and one still serving as resistance.

A daily close above 130.60 would confirm the breakout and target 134.50. However, the USDJPY downtrend remains intact.

Additionally, attempting to long USDJPY before a close above 130.60 is ill-advised, given the recent trend and unfavorable risk-to-reward ratio.

At the same time, trying to short USDJPY isn’t ideal while above 126.70, and even below that the lower trend line here makes shorting the pair challenging.

AUDUSD Forecast

AUDUSD has played out perfectly for us since the bullish break above 0.6870 earlier this month.

We had the daily close above the level, several retests as new support, and follow-through to our 0.7030 target.

I also wrote how 0.7030 could trigger a bearish reversal last week, which we got on Wednesday.

For now, the same 0.6870 area is serving as support for AUDUSD.

However, if you don’t have a position yet, it may be better to wait for a daily close above that 0.7030 region before looking for longs.

The risk to reward isn’t great right now with AUDUSD trading in the middle of this range, and I don’t see a favorable setup just yet.

That said, this month’s price action is ideal if you favor trading the range.

S&P 500 (SPX500) Forecast

Technical levels don’t get much better than those on the SPX500 (S&P futures).

Last week, I mentioned how the 4,020 area was resistance for SPX. Sure enough, we saw the market selloff from 4,015 on Tuesday.

We’ve since seen the market test 3,910, although Thursday’s session closed just below it.

However, Friday recovered, so all eyes turn back to the all-time high trend line at 4,000 this week.

That remains a massive hurdle for bulls. But a daily close above it would be bullish toward 4,140 and possibly 4,300.

Key support for SPX remains the 3,890-3,910 region. Below that, we have a much more significant support region at 3,780.