USD/CAD falls through 1.3000 even with oil tumbling. Here’s why


It’s extraordinarily rare to have oil down 7.5% and the Canadian dollar flat on the day but that is what’s unfolding today.

USD/ CAD  is down 5 pips while oil is down $7.72 to $96.38.

The rout in oil is a bit of a mystery but likely ties back to fears of recession and China lockdowns. It’s been a volatile trade in the last month and the loonie has tracked it tightly. At times the loonie has been able to outperform on rising natural gas prices but that’s not the case today as natty has reversed to fall 2.2%.

So what’s the story with CAD strength? Well, it’s not really CAD strength. The answer is on the  US dollar  side of the equation. The dollar has been a runaway train this year but is giving some back today after briefly breaking parity with the euro.

US yields are falling and the 2s/10s yield curve inversion has exceeded the April extreme of -6.5 bps. Tomorrow is the inflation report but there’s a growing confidence it will represent the peak of the cycle as growth slows sharply.

For USD/CAD in the bigger picture, the pair has repeatedly tried to break above 1.3000 without any lasting success.

If oil keeps falling and the global economy struggles, a break higher is inevitable.



Read More:USD/CAD falls through 1.3000 even with oil tumbling. Here’s why

2022-07-12 15:23:00

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