Japanese yen slips, crude oil prices rise before RBA decision as China extends lockdown

Tuesday’s Asia-Pacific outlook

The Japanese yen is moving lower in early Asia-Pacific trading, extending overnight weakness as US stocks moved higher. The Wall Street rally saw the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) close 2.01% higher. Twitter stock rose more than 27% after Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s majority stake in the company was revealed in an SEC regulatory filing. Stocks were mostly higher across APAC markets on Monday.

Crude oil prices gained after Saudi Arabia announced that it would hike prices for all of its buyers. Meanwhile, a new round of Russian sanctions being drafted by the European Union is raising supply concerns. French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested targeting Russia’s oil and coal industries. The pressure on lawmakers to lobby for new sanctions has grown after allegations of war crimes surfaced from videos and on-the-ground reports out of the Ukrainian city of Bucha.

Asian equity markets may come under pressure today amid an extended lockdown of China’s financial hub, Shanghai. The city announced that the lockdown initiated last week, scheduled to end today, would continue until further notice. Beijing has dispatched thousands of healthcare workers to help conduct mass testing, but unconfirmed reports have indicated that city residents are having trouble finding medical attention and help under the strict government-imposed restrictions.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision will cross the wires at 04:30 GMT. Analysts expect the RBA to hold steady on its benchmark rate, but the accompanying policy statement as well as Governor Lowe’s commentary will be under the microscope. The Aussie dollar may benefit from a hawkish surprise there, but recent strength may have set the Australian dollar up for disappointment.

USD/JPY technical forecast

USD/JPY rose overnight, adding to gains from the prior day when prices bounced from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Prices found resistance at the 23.6% Fib level for a second day. Prices may range between those two Fib levels in the short term. A break higher would expose the 2022 high at 125.108. Alternatively, a break below the 38.2% Fib would put the rising 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) up for a test. Meanwhile, the MACD oscillator may signal a bearish sign shortly, with the MACD line tracking to cross below its signal line.

USD/JPY daily chart