Avatar: The Way of Water has finally hit theaters, 13 years after the release of Avatar. The sequel had paradoxically been both dismissed and highly anticipated by audiences, and being the sequel to the highest-grossing movie of all time certainly put big expectations on it. Avatar: The Way of Water was projected to open with $150 to $170 million, but came in a little bit below with $138 million. While some saw it as a disappointment, the film actually opened about $60 million above the first film, showcasing growth in the audience.
Most movie’s box office stories tend to be written in the opening weekend numbers, yet it would be foolish to write off Avatar: The Way of Water so soon. The film, like its predecessor and James Cameron’s other highest-grossing movie Titanic, plays by different rules and while it may not open to record-breaking box office numbers they perform well over the holiday season. Avatar: The Way of Water story is still being told, and here is what might have impacted the opening weekend numbers and how it could play out over the coming weeks.
Audiences Are Waiting for Premium Showtimes
Avatar set a new standard in 3D for audiences and in many ways is still the gold standard. This likely meant audiences wanted to wait to go see Avatar: The Way of the Water in the format, or one of the higher-end ones to truly get the full scope of Pandora. There are fewer IMAX, 3D, and IMAX 3D screens than in regular formats, and given the three-hour runtime, audiences may only want to invest in one viewing at the start and make sure it is in the best format possible. Avatar: The Way of Water regular format screens might not be in high demand, but on its opening weekend multiple premium screens across the country were sold out and more than half of opening weekend tickets were from 3D screenings.
Unlike a Marvel movie, where audiences want to see it as quickly as possible to avoid spoilers, the Avatar films are more self-contained, so audiences are more likely willing to wait to go see the movie in a premium format like 3D or IMAX. Particularly with the week before the holidays, some audiences may wait till they are with their families or in a bigger city with a high format option. This leads to a smaller opening weekend but stretches out the film’s performance over multiple weeks, also allowing for word of mouth to spread. Additionally, people may want to wait until there’s a weekend where theaters might not be so crowded; after all, they waited 13 years for the sequel to be released, they can probably wait a few more weeks.
Holiday Release Window Gives it More Chances to Grow
Avatar: The Way of Water might be seen as a disappointment to some partially because fellow third week of December releases like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Spider-Man: No Way Home, broke December weekend records. Yet it was unrealistic to expect Avatar: The Way of Water to do the same as the original didn’t break any records, and even opening above the first film is an impressive feat. Yet like Avatar, the sequel has the chance to become a major hit over the coming weeks as families gather together and look to share a movie with one another leading to more group outings and more ticket sales.
Up until the release of the Disney-era Star Wars films, the biggest December franchise movies were The Lord of the Rings and The Hobbit films, and those opened to impressive openings in the $70 to $80 million range and held firm over the holidays including strong weekday performances. Those films ended up being among the most successful films of their respective years, partially by taking part in the stretched-out holiday box office and as the only big movie heading into January. Avatar held the number one spot for 7 weeks, running all through December and January. Avatar: The Way of Water could do the same, with no major competition set until Disney’s own Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
Both Films Were Impacted By Winter Storms
One strange phenomenon around both Avatar movies opening in theaters was massive winter storms that seriously impacted their box office. In 2009, the first Avatar was originally projected to open to $85 million but opened at $73 million and a common factor cited was a massive snowstorm that hit the East Coast of the United States during the opening weekend and over the following days leading up to the Christmas season. Avatar in its second weekend almost made the exact same as its opening weekend, an almost unheard-of phenomenon indicating the storm may have impacted audiences and that word of mouth had also spread.
To quote Star Wars creator George Lucas, “it’s like poetry, it rhymes.” Avatar: The Way of Water had a similar opening weekend impacted by a massive snowstorm. Avatar: The Way of Water also came in below expectations but also had to deal with families traveling, likely early to avoid what many were calling “the storm of a generation”, The storm hit the Midwest of the United States and had major impacts on numerous cities across the country likely impacting Avatar: The Way of Water opening weekend and following week box office. This is an unforeseen circumstance outside the control of the movie that impacts the box office, and now people might want to start adjusting their holiday travel plans for 2024 when Avatar 3 is released, just in case another snowstorm hits.
James Cameron’s Track Record
It’s become a running joke to not bet against director James Cameron, but it is an expression with some merit to it. Both Titanic and Avatar were expected to be major box office flops, yet not only were both hits they each went on to hold the title of the highest-grossing movie of all time. Avatar allowed James Cameron to beat his own record he set with Titanic. This is a filmmaker who has taken two massive breaks between major films, so it appears that history could repeat itself once more.
In many ways, Avatar: The Way of Water could play out similarly to Titanic and Avatar. So far all the evidence is pointing to that from the lack of competition over the holiday season into January, to the demand for premium formats making audiences space out when they go see the movie, to the very fact that it could be positioned as a potential Oscar frontrunner. James Cameron has always taken big bold swings, and it has always worked out for him.
Read More:Was Avatar 2 a Flop at the Box Office, or Does the Franchise Play By Different Rules?
2022-12-24 15:15:00
