CPM Trade Signal – November 14, 2022

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Time Stamp

Prices as of 11:05 a.m. EST 14 November 2022 $1,773.60 (Basis the December 2022 Comex contract).

Recommendation: Take Profit and Stand Aside

Initial Target Price / Range: $1,740 -$1780

Initial Timeframe: 14 November 2022 to 25 November 2022

Gold prices have surpassed CPM Group’s last buy recommendation of $1,760. CPM recommends taking profit and standing aside. While CPM remains positive on gold over the next few months, gold prices have run up very sharply over the past few days and are beginning to look overbought. There are various Fed governors that will speak this week that are likely to continue driving the point that Fed policy is likely to remain on a tightening path until there is greater confidence that inflation is being brought under control. This is likely to deflate some of the upward move in gold prices.  Prices could back off from current levels in the short term before resuming on an upward trajectory.

There are some positive (for the world) factors going on that could lead the gold rally to lose steam on a very short-term basis, the next week or two. Longer term CPM remains positive toward gold prices.

1. Biden and Xi are trying to find words to imply that they will try to be more cooperative, even as both governments are likely to continue to be belligerent toward each other. The words this week could lead to a reduction of market perceptions of reduced US-China tensions and hostilities even if it is not true, which would be good for world trade and overall economic activity.
2. The U.S. electorate has sent a clear message in last week’s elections: The vast majority of voters are fed up with both the Democrats and Republican extremists, and the lack of both cooperative democratic government processes and action on a lot of pressing issues.
3. Ukraine is making good progress on beating back the Russians, there is rising insurgency within Russia, and Russia’s leadership is arguing among itself as to what to do.

CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.

While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.

Notes:

Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.

Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.

Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.

CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.

Disclaimer – Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.