Stocks lose steam, bond markets suggest pain ahead for U.S. economy

A man stands on an overpass with an electronic board showing Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China January 6, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song//

LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) – European shares fell on Wednesday after three straight days of gains, as signs in bond markets of pain ahead for the U.S. economy tempered hopes of a negotiated end to the Ukraine conflict.

The broad Euro STOXX 600 (.STOXX) fell 0.6% after three positive sessions that had taken the index back to levels reached before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Benchmark indexes in Frankfurt (.GDAXI) and Paris (.FCHI) lost 1.5% and 1% respectively, with London shares (.FTSE) also slipping a touch. Among individual stocks, Ericsson (ERICb.ST) shares fell 0.7% after investors publicly rebuked its chief and over a scandal involving potential payments to Islamic State. read more

Bond investors had bet overnight that aggressive tightening of policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve could harm the world’s biggest economy over the longer term.

The widely tracked U.S. 2-year-10-year Treasury yield curve briefly inverted on Tuesday for the first time since September 2019.

Longer-dated yields falling below shorter ones indicate a lack of faith in future growth, with 10-year yields falling beneath 2-year rates widely viewed as a harbinger of recession.

Market players said the signals coming from bond markets were at odds with the mood in equity markets.

“It’s a complete diversion of fixed income and the equity market,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.

“Equity markets are overly optimistic and the fixed income markets are probably being overly pessimistic.”

An inverted Treasury curve has in recent decades been followed by a recession within two years, including the 2020 downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

A day after rising above 0% for the first time since 2014, Germany’s two-year bond yield was up six basis points at 0.01% — keeping the previous day’s highs in sight.

Shares rallied in Asia and Wall Street overnight after Ukraine had proposed on Tuesday that it take on neutral status, seen as a sign of progress in face-to-face peace negotiations. read more

On the ground, however, reports of attacks continued and Ukraine reacted with scepticism to Russia’s promise in negotiations to scale down military operations around Kyiv.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.3% to its highest in nearly a month, with most Asian stock markets in positive territory.

Yet the rally fizzled, with U.S. S&P 500 futures turning negative and pointing to losses of about 0.3%.

“I’m very worried that U.S. equities do not price any risk of slowdown in the U.S. economy – that is extremely worrying,” said Ludovic Colin, a senior portfolio manager at Swiss asset manager Vontobel.

The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in 50 countries, was up 0.1%.

JAPAN IN FOCUS

The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield was last at 2.4128% , having risen as high as 2.557% on Monday for its highest since April 2019, as traders positioned themselves for quickfire increases to interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The impact of rising U.S. yields played out elsewhere, dragging Japanese government bond yields in their wake in a threat to Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan increased efforts to defend its key yield cap on Wednesday, offering to ramp up buying of government bonds across the curve, including unscheduled emergency market operations. read more

The widening gap between U.S. and Japanese yields has caused the yen to weaken sharply, but it managed to regain some lost ground on Wednesday.

The Japanese currency rose 0.9% to 121.80 per dollar , compared with Monday’s low of 124.3, amid concerns Japanese authorities might step in to bolster the yen.

Elsewhere in currency markets, the euro rose 0.6% to $1.1157, its highest in four weeks, supported by the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

Reporting by Tom Wilson in London, additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe and Alun John in Hong Kong
Editing by David Goodman and Bernadette Baum

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