Futures Loom As World Awaits Putin’s Ukraine Move; Five Stocks That Don’t Suck

Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally suffered significant damage last week, with the major indexes below key support and starting to move toward their Jan. 24 lows.

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Fears that Russia will invade Ukraine are weighing heavily on the market rally, which is already dealing with inflation and other big headwinds. The uncertainty over what Russian President Vladimir Putin will do adds significantly to the volatility.

Belarus said Sunday that its big war games with Russia will be extended beyond today, citing unrest in parts of Eastern Ukraine. Russia had said its troops would return home at the conclusion of the massive drills on Feb. 20. But Russian forces have continued to build up in recent days.

Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday agreed to trilateral talks “in the few hours” that would also include German and Ukrainian leadership, according to a French statement.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said President Joe Biden is willing to meet with Putin in any format at any time.

Biden said late Friday that he was confident that Putin has decided to invade Ukraine within the next few days. In a later tweet, he explained why the U.S. is proclaiming Russia’s intentions in advance. “We’re calling out Russia’s plans. Not because we want a conflict, but because we are doing everything in our power to remove any reason Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine.”

Cease-fire violations between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists have surged in the past couple of days. Separatist leaders have ordered a full military mobilization and civilian evacuation, claiming Ukraine is close to launching an offensive. Shelling from Russian-held Donetsk and Luhansk areas of Ukraine, killing two Ukrainian soldiers, may be an effort to goad Kyiv into lashing out. Local, pro-Russia media are claiming explosions in rebel-held parts of eastern Ukraine. These events offer a pretext for Russia to stay mobilized and likely to launch a new Ukraine invasion.

The U.S. and Western nations are poised to impose major economic sanctions vs. Russia in the event of a Ukraine invasion. On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at a security conference in Munich, urged the West to impose sanctions now.

But setting aside the geopolitics, the stock market rally looks ever weaker. Investors should take a defensive posture with minimal exposure.

Five Stocks Near Buy Points Amid Weak Market

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures. ETFs tracking the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 retreated Friday evening after Biden made his latest comments on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

The DIA ETF fell 0.4%. SPY sank 0.5% and QQQ 0.6%.

While Dow futures will open Sunday evening as usual, U.S. markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Presidents Day holiday. Other stock markets will be open around the world, however.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Five Stocks That Don’t Suck

Apple stock, O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Commercial Metals (CMC), Union Pacific (UNP) and Nutrien (NTR) are five stocks holding up near buy points with relative strength lines at or near highs.

Apple (AAPL) dwarfs all of these names, but it’s the only one trading below its 50-day moving average.

The RS line, the blue line in the charts provided, tracks a stock’s performance vs. the S&P 500 index. It’s an easy way to spot leading stocks in any kind of market. In a weak or choppy market, stocks with RS lines at highs could be leaders in the next rally.

Nvidia, Tesla Just Hanging On

Meanwhile, Nvidia stock and Tesla (TSLA) rebounded from near their 200-day moving averages on Friday. This is an area where Tesla stock and Nvidia (NVDA) found support before in late January. Can these big former winners continue to do so? It’ll likely depend on the market rally’s next moves. But as megacap stocks, Tesla and NVDA stock will have something to say about the overall market direction.

Trump’s Truth Social To Launch?

Donald Trump’s Truth Social site is set to debut in Apple’s App Store on Monday. That’s according to posts from an executive viewed by Reuters. That could mean the return of former President Trump to social media on Presidents Day. Facebook and Twitter banned Trump from their networks in the wake of Jan. 6, 2021, storming of Capitol Hill.

Truth Social is part of Trump Media & Technology Group. David Nunes, a former GOP congressman who now heads TMTC, has said recently that Truth Social will launch at the end of March.

Trump Media is going public via a SPAC merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC). DWAC stock has done well in 2022 and appears to be consolidating once again.

Analysts say Truth Social will be sure to attract a lot of users to start, but profitability could be difficult.

Home Depot (HD) headlines earnings before Tuesday’s open, while Mosaic (MOS) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) are among those due after the close.

Tesla stock and Nvidia are on IBD Leaderboard. ORLY stock is on the IBD 50. Commercial Metals was Friday’s IBD Stock Of The Day. UNP stock was Thursday’s.

The video embedded in this article discussed the week’s market action in detail, while also analyzing CMC stock, Union Pacific and new SwingTrader stock Dollar Tree (DLTR).

Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live

Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 424.57 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 5.9 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 80.08 million, with deaths above 959,000.

New coronavirus cases have tumbled in the U.S. and worldwide, with hospitalizations and deaths also down. Covid restrictions are being scaled back or removed in many states and countries around the world. One exception is Hong Kong, which is seeing its first real spike of the pandemic.

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally tried to bounce last week but faded badly late in the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index gave up 1.6%. The Nasdaq composite sank 1.8%. The small-cap Russell 2000 retreated nearly 1%

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 1.93%, but that’s after hitting a 30-month high of 2.065% intraday Wednesday. Russia war fears sent investors into safe havens, while Fed minutes from the January policy meeting didn’t offer any new hawkish surprises.

Crude oil prices fell more than 2% to $91.07 a barrel, but held above the $90 mark.

ETFs

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 1% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) slumped 3%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) tumbled 5.4%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) closed flat, but fell sharply on Thursday-Friday. Nvidia stock is a major SMH component.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 2.1% last week. The Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) gained 1.3%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) ascended 1.8%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) dipped 0.5%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) gave up 3.35% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) sank 2.3%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) pulled back 2.1%.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) plunged 9.9% last week, hitting a fresh 20-month low on Friday. ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) tumbled 6.6%. Tesla stock remains the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs.

Five Best Chinese Stocks To Watch Now

Apple Stock

Apple stock dipped 0.8% to 167.30 last week. During the late January market sell-off, the iPhone giant never came close to its 200-day line. AAPL stock now has a cup-with-handle base with a 176.75 buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis.

Commercial Metals Stock

Commercial Metals stock rose 3.1% to 36.75 last week. It’s slightly above its 50-day moving average, working on a 38.82 buy point. CMC stock could be starting to form a handle, with a potential lower entry of 37.59. Investors already could use that as an early entry.

Union Pacific Stock

Union Pacific jumped 5.2% to 251.19 last week. UNP stock is trading just below a 256.11 buy point in a very shallow flat base. Investors arguably could buy it now or just shy of 255.

O’Reilly Stock

ORLY stock edged up 1.3 to 676.96 last week, its fourth straight modest weekly gain. O’Reilly stock has reclaimed the 50-day line, offering an early entry in a shallow cup base. The official buy point is 710.96.

Auto parts retailers often do well in tough markets. The business can thrive in difficult economic times. Right now, with new-car prices scarce and used-car prices soaring, many Americans may keep their old cars longer. That’s good news for O’Reilly and its rivals.

Nutrien Stock

NTR stock had a wild week, tumbling to undercut the 50-day line briefly before quickly rebounding to record high before pulling back slightly. But, ultimately, Nutrien stock dipped 0.7% to 75.78. That’s just below a 77.45 buy point.

On Wednesday night, the fertilizer maker reported a 929% EPS surge with revenue up 79%. Other fertilizer stocks also are doing well, despite some big intraday and daily swings. That includes MOS stock, which reports late Tuesday.

Tesla Vs. BYD: Which Booming EV Giant Is The Better Buy?

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock edged down 0.35% to 856.98 last week, but closed low in its range and nearly tested its 200-day line again on Friday. TSLA stock has been hitting resistance at its falling 21-day line for the past few weeks, while the 50-day line is racing lower. Holding the 200-day line, and its Jan. 28 low of 792.01, is key for the EV giant. On the upside, Tesla stock has a 1,208.10 buy point, and doesn’t really have an early entry.

Meanwhile, BYD (BYDDF) on Saturday launched the Yuan Plus in China, with…