Stock Market 2023: What To Do After ‘Stay Away’ Year; Tesla, Nio, BYD Deliveries Due

Dow Jones futures will open on Monday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Li Auto reported booming record December deliveries.  Tesla (TSLA) and other China EV makers such as Nio and BYD also will report year-end and 2022 deliveries over the New Year’s holiday weekend.

X

Investors will be looking for a brighter stock market in 2023 after a “stay away” year, especially for growth. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all had their biggest annual declines in 14 years. A stock market rally attempt is underway, but has a long way to go to prove itself.

The Dow Jones dipped below its 50-day moving average on Friday. The S&P 500 and especially the Nasdaq have some distance to go to their 50-day lines, with several other key resistance areas along the way.

Celsius Holdings (CELH), Deere (DE), BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Medpace (MEDP) are five stocks near buy points. It’s a diverse list, reflecting possible areas of market leadership in the new year.

DE stock and Medpace are on IBD Leaderboard. Celsius stock, MEDP stock are on the IBD 50. Deere and BMRN stock are on the IBD Big Cap 20.

Deere was Friday’s IBD Stock Of The Day.

But whether these stocks work or not depends on the market trending higher. Right now it is not. Investors should remain very cautious.

The video embedded in the article discussed the recent market action in depth and discussed what investors should be doing as stock market 2023 gets going. The video also analyzed CELH stock, Deere and BioMarin.

China’s Economy Struggling

China’s economic activity is tumbling as the abrupt end of strict Covid rules spur massive waves of infections. The official manufacturing index fell 1 point in December in 47, the government said Saturday.  The nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers service-sector and construction activity, dived 6.1 points to 41.6. Both are the lowest since February 2020, when Covid-19 first hit the country. Readings below 50 signal contraction.

China EV Deliveries

Li Auto (LI) reported Jan. 1 local time that it delivered 21,233 vehicles in December, with both its L8 and L9 hybrid SUVs topping 10,000. That was was up nearly 50% vs. a year earlier and soaring 41% vs. the previous record of 15,034 in November. Li Auto on Friday said December deliveries of its hybrid SUVs would top 20,000.

Li Auto delivered 46,319 vehicles in Q4, up 31.5% vs. a year earlier and nearly 75% vs. Q3, as a model changeover was underway. Li Auto delivered 133,246 vehicles in 2022, up 47% from 2021.

Nio (NIO) and XPeng (XPEV) also on tap to report December, fourth quarter and full year EV deliveries on Jan. 1. Nio recently lowered its Q4 delivery guidance, citing Covid-related issues. The guidance implied December deliveries of 14,263-15,263 EVs, which would slightly top November’s record 14,178. Xpeng should see deliveries rise after several month-to-month declines, but its model lineup is struggling.

BYD will likely report its December sales on Jan. 3, before the U.S. market open Tuesday. The EV and battery giant recently stated that Covid infections among workers was reducing production by at least 2,000 vehicles per day. Full-year deliveries of all-electric BEVs and plug-in hybrids should be around 1.88 million, BYD recently said. That implies December deliveries around 247,000-250,000, which would still be a record.

Nio stock, Li Auto, Xpeng and BYD all had a tough 2022, like other EV makers and growth stocks generally. They all bottomed in October or early November, but have pulled back in recent weeks.

Tesla Vs. BYD: Which EV Giant Is The Better Buy?

Tesla EV Deliveries

Tesla is expected to release fourth-quarter EV production and delivery figures on Jan. 2. Analysts expect Q4 Tesla deliveries of 418,000, though the consensus has been slipping in recent days amid further China weakness. Tesla offered big year-end incentives, especially in China and the U.S., to boost sales. That didn’t provide a huge boost in China, but did appear to clear inventory in the U.S.

In 2023, Tesla will benefit from new U.S. tax credits of up to $7,500, though the year-end incentives of $7,500 for the Model 3 or Model Y — with Model S and X vehicles added Dec. 30 — may have tapped some of that demand. A $55,000 price cap on most Model Y vehicles could limit Tesla’s EV credit boost.

Meanwhile, China is ending EV subsidies. Along with a massive Covid wave, that could further chill sales for EV makers there, including Tesla. Tesla may need significant new price cuts in China, where competition continues to heat up from BYD, Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng and others. Tesla has already renewed year-end incentives for Jan. 1-Feb. 28.

Over in Europe, several countries are cutting or ending EV subsidies, providing another headwind for Tesla as backlogs there fade.

Tesla stock plunged 65% in 2022, its worst annual decline by far. Shares crashed 37% in December to their lowest levels since September 2022. The EV giant did rebound from midweek bear market lows to end the week roughly flat. TSLA stock volume has been very high in the past several weeks.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday, Jan. 2, in observance of New Year’s.

On Tuesday, investors will get the December ISM manufacturing index. On Friday, the December jobs report looms large as the Federal Reserve looks for signs of a weakening job market.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live

Stock Market 2022 Ends

The stock market fell into a correction on Wednesday, but a new rally attempt began Thursday. The major indexes slipped Friday, closing out a slightly negative week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.2% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index edged down 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 lost a fraction.

For the full year, the Dow Jones retreated 8.8%, the S&P 500 slumped 19.4% and the Nasdaq tumbled 33.1%. It was their worst annual performances since 2008.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 13 basis points last week to 3.88% after spiking 27 basis points in the prior week. The 10-year yield ended 2021 at 1.51%.

U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.9% to $80.26 a barrel last week, the third straight weekly gain. Crude oil prices climbed 6.7% for the year, but finished well off their peaks above $130 a barrel.

ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) dipped 0.3%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 1%.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rose 0.9% last week, but after hitting a fresh five-year low on Wednesday. ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) declined 0.7%. TSLA stock is a major holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs, with Cathie Wood ramping up holdings in recent weeks. Ark also owns a small position in BYD stock.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) fell 1.9%% last week. The Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) lost 1.2%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) descended 0.9%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) slipped 0.8%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 0.5% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) advanced 0.7%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) dipped 0.2%.

Five Best Chinese Stocks To Watch Now

Stock Market 2023: 5 Stocks To Watch

BioMarin stock dipped 0.8% to 103.49 last week, pulling back in the second half of December but holding support around its 21-day line. A strong rise from current levels might offer an aggressive entry. But investors may want to wait for BMRN stock to forge a new base, or find support at the 10-week line. BioMarin earnings are expected to triple in 2023.

Deere stock fell 1.9% to 428.76 in the past week, pulling back to the 10-week moving average, with a flat base now on a weekly chart. The official buy point is 448.50. Investors might use a 10-week line bounce as an early entry for DE stock, perhaps after retaking the 21-day line.

CELH stock retreated from record highs in December, sliding for the past four weeks, but rebounded from its 50-day line on Friday, closing at 104.04. Celsius stock could offer an early entry if it clears the 21-day line decisively, with a move above the Dec. 27 high of 109.31 as a specific trigger.

XOM stock climbed 1.5% last week to 110.30, slightly above a rising 50-day moving average. A move above the Dec. 27 high of 110.47 would offer an early entry. Exxon stock has a flat base with a 114.76 buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis.

MEDP stock rose modestly Thursday from its 50-day moving average, breaking above a downtrend line in a recent consolidation. That offered an early entry within its consolidation. On Friday, with the major indexes retreating again, Medpace stock fell back to its 50-day, but did close well.

Medpace’s move could still work, but it just shows how difficult it has been for stocks to make headway.

Stock Market Analysis

The stock market edged lower last week, even with Thursday’s strong bounce, capping a tough year.

The major indexes are off their October bear market lows but well below their December short-term highs. A rally attempt technically is underway as the 2023 stock market kicks off, but it needs a follow-through day to confirm a new uptrend.

Even then, the market would face a number of technical hurdles, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all some distance below their 50-day and 200-day lines. The Dow Jones, the relative leader in recent months, dipped below its 50-day line to end 2022 but is above its 200-day.

Until there’s clarity on the Fed rate endgame and the economy, the market could be rangebound in choppy, sideways action.

The December jobs report on Friday, Jan. 6, will be important. Significant slowing in…