Oregon incomes keep climbing but still lag national average

Oregonians have historically earned less than people in other parts of the country, but over the past decade the state has narrowed the gap considerably.

Oregon’s per capita personal income was $61,596 last year, according to a new study by Molly Hendrickson, an economist with the Oregon Employment Department. That’s 96% of the national average. Oregonians made only 88% of the national average in 2011.

Personal income consists of earnings — the wages and salaries from employment — plus investment income and government payments. It recently has included the pandemic stimulus checks that continued into last year.

Oregon’s personal income grew up by 8.2% last year, according to Hendrickson, tied with Washington for the 10th fastest growth in the nation. The state ranked 21st overall in per capital personal income.

Oregon incomes have been rising sharply for several years, though economists aren’t exactly clear on why.

An influx of professional workers moving here from other states is surely one factor, as is the state’s growing tech sector. The poverty rate has dropped steadily in the populous Portland area, reflecting low unemployment and rising wages — especially at the lower ends of the wage scale. (Poverty rates, however, are set at a national scale and have little bearing on affordability in a high-cost market like Portland.)

Stimulus payments inflated personal incomes last year, as did wealthy people selling stock to lock in gains on Wall Street and to avoid prospective federal tax hikes on the rich (tax increases that Congress did not ultimately pass).

Oregon’s outlook for income growth isn’t as rosy over the next few years, according to a new forecast from state economists. They expect a mild recession beginning next summer, costing the state 24,000 jobs and pushing unemployment up to 5.4%. (Oregon’s jobless rate is currently around 4.1%.)

And with stimulus payments behind us, and stocks in bear market territory, upper income Oregonians have less incentive to cash out their investments.

Forecasters expect just 2.4% personal income growth in 2023, with growth climbing to around 5% for the few years after that. That’s still relatively healthy by historical standards, reflecting optimism that the coming downturn will be short and soft.

“The recession is expected to be mild,” forecasters wrote, “and personal income is expected to remain stable despite job losses.”

This is Oregon Insight, The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.

— Mike Rogoway | mrogoway@oregonian.com | Twitter: @rogoway |

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