Live updates on 2022 midterm Election Day

A new NBC News model of party control within the U.S. House of Representatives estimates that Republicans will ultimately win 219 seats and Democrats will win 216, with a 13 seat margin of error.

While these numbers are merely estimates, they offer a window into what is turning out to be a better than expected night for Democrats in the House. Many in the party and in the Biden White House began the day expecting to lose the razor-thin Democratic House majority by at least 20 seats.

But unexpected wins by Democrats like incumbent Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger and challenger Wiley Nickel in North Carolina, according to NBC News projections, changed their calculus.

NBC’s new model also suggests there is still a possibility that Democrats could maintain a majority, an outcome that seemed unthinkable just a few hours ago.

President Joe Biden spent the night at the White House, calling victorious Democratic candidates to congratulate them.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump hosted an election night party at his Florida resort with a full pool of reporters present.

Trump has endorsed hundreds of Republican candidates running for office on his MAGA platform. But instead of celebrating scores of victories on Tuesday night, the former president gave a very short speech before spending several hours mostly at a table in the reception room, surrounded by friends and aides.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy reserved a party room in Washington D.C. for what was expected to be a speech celebrating the Republican takeover and his future title of House speaker.

As of 1 a.m. ET on Wednesday, however, McCarthy had not shown up at his own event.

— Christina Wilkie

Pennsylvania’s Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman will defeat Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in a pivotal Senate race that could prove a decisive blow in the battle for control of the upper chamber of Congress, NBC News projects.

Fetterman will succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, moving a Republican-held Senate seat into Democratic hands.

Democrats, who held the slimmest-possible Senate majority heading into Election Day, were banking on flipping the seat in the key swing state, where President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump two years earlier.

The projected verdict deals another blow to Trump, who backed Oz in a hard-fought GOP primary election and campaigned for him in the general.

— Kevin Breuninger

Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson will win reelection against her Trump-backed Republican challenger Kristina Karamo, NBC News projects.

Karamo, who sought to become Michigan’s top elections official, has spread claims bolstering the falsehood that Trump won the state in 2020

— Kevin Breuninger

Republican Senate hopeful Dr. Mehmet Oz told his supporters that he is still predicting victory over Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in the neck-and-neck race in Pennsylvania.

“When all the ballots are counted, we believe we will win this race,” Oz said in a brief speech delivered before midnight Tuesday.

The Keystone State’s must-win Senate race, which could determine control of the upper chamber of Congress, is still too close to call, NBC News projected with 88% of the vote in.

But Fetterman is leading Oz, according to NBC’s projection.

— Kevin Breuninger

Michigan voted to approve a constitutional amendment that protects the right to abortion and to reproductive rights more broadly, NBC News projected.

The amendment includes protections for abortion, contraception, prenatal care, postpartum care, miscarriage management, sterilization and infertility. Michigan could regulate abortion for a viable fetus but cannot prohibit abortion if a woman’s life, physical or mental health is at stake.

Activists have spent more than $28 million through the political action committee Reproductive Freedom for All to support the amendment, according to campaign filings. Opposition has spent more than $16 million through the PAC Citizens to Support MI Women and Children.

— Jack Stebbins

Vermont voters will pass a state constitutional amendment protecting abortion access, NBC News projected.

The amendment has 76% support among Vermont voters with 72% of the vote currently in, according to NBC. The amendment guarantees an individual’s right to personal reproductive autonomy.

While abortion rights were not in immediate jeopardy in the largely liberal state, the referendum guarantees the right is maintained even if the state’s political situation changes in the future.

— Jack Stebbins

Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger of Georgia, who clashed with former President Donald Trump over the state’s election results in 2020, will win his bid for another term, NBC News projected.

Raffensperger came into the national spotlight after the 2020 presidential election, when Trump called him and asked him “to find 11,780 votes” to reverse President Joe Biden’s win in Georgia. Raffensperger pushed back on Trump in that call and afterward. That call is now part of a criminal investigation.

— Kevin Breuninger

Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul defeated Republican U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin in her bid to keep her office, NBC News projected.

Hochul assumed the governor’s office in 2021 after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned. She served as lieutenant governor to Cuomo from 2015 to 2021.

Zeldin currently represents New York’s 1st Congressional District in the House. Hochul was leading by about 11 percentage points with more than 70% of the vote in, according to NBC.

— Chelsey Cox

Republican Ted Budd won his bid for Senate in North Carolina, defeating Democrat Cheri Beasley, NBC News projected.

Budd will replace GOP Sen. Richard Burr, who is retiring from his seat.

He had garnered nearly 51% of the vote in North Carolina with more than 90% of the state reporting.

— Jack Stebbins

The make-or-break Senate race in Georgia between incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican rival Herschel Walker is too close to call, NBC News projects.

With 86% of the vote in, Walker and Warnock appear to be inching toward a majority of the vote, separated by a margin within 1 percentage point. Chase Oliver, a Libertarian candidate, holds 1.9% of the vote.

If no candidate wins a majority, the Senate race will head to a runoff, with an election set for Dec. 6.

Warnock, who took office in 2021, and Walker, the former football star backed by former President Donald Trump, are competing for one of the most important races of the midterms cycle. The seat in the purple state, which President Joe Biden narrowly won over Trump in 2020, could tip the scales on which party takes majority control of the Senate.

— Kevin Breuninger

Republican J.D. Vance defeated Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, keeping the seat red and boosting the party’s bid to flip control of the chamber, NBC News projected.

Vance’s win will increase the GOP’s chances of regaining control of the Senate, which is currently split 50-50 by party.

Vance and Ryan were vying for the seat made vacant by retiring two-term Republican Sen. Rob Portman. Ohio has shifted to be more reliably Republican in recent elections, voting for former President Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020.

Both Vance and Ryan positioned themselves as populists seeking to appeal to working-class Americans.

— Emma Kinery