How to safely send a top U.S. official to Kyiv- POLITICO

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President JOE BIDEN confirmed Alex and JONATHAN LEMIRE’s Wednesday scoop that the U.S. might send a top-level official to Kyiv, telling reporters Thursday “we’re making that decision now.”

Such a visit would be hard to pull off. While there were security concerns about sending past officials to Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. at least had a strong footprint in those countries, including military bases where it was relatively safe to land. No such infrastructure exists in Ukraine — the U.S. Embassy is closed and America has little to no ability to dictate events on the ground.

So how to get a Cabinet-level American official safely into Ukraine for a visit with President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY? NatSec Daily contacted former officials familiar with such trips, but all declined to speak on the record because they didn’t want to divulge trade secrets or complicate the possible sojourn. One person, though, agreed to speak in generalities on background — giving us a sneak peak into the planning that’s likely going on right now.

The first thing that will happen is the operations lead and head of security for the Cabinet member will speak with U.S. officials in Ukraine. They’ll get a sense of the best ways in and out of the country and develop a game plan along with a timeline of events once the official is in Kyiv.

Tough decisions have to be made at this point. What kind of aircraft will the official fly on, and will it be U.S. military or commercial? What are the communications needs inside the aircraft? What kind of countermeasures should the aircraft have, just in case? Do you land in Ukraine, or in a nearby country like Poland? If you do that, does the principal then head to Kyiv in a helicopter or, less likely, do you drive there?

Furthermore, a decision needs to be made about whether to tell the Russians about the trip. The benefit of doing so is that Moscow won’t be surprised and overreact when they see a Western plane suddenly fly near — or into — Ukrainian airspace. The downside is that the Kremlin would have the information they need to attack the transport vehicle if they wanted. It’s unlikely, but administration officials are surely speaking with experts on Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s state of mind within the government.

“Is Putin in a position to take a crack at a top U.S. official? That’s a long afternoon meeting on risk,” the former official told us.

The visiting Cabinet member’s agency will also sneakily send an advance team to speak with their Ukrainian counterparts. Those meetings could happen in Kyiv itself — giving the team a chance to check out multiple sites — or even at a Ukrainian embassy in a nearby country. Again, they can compare notes on best practices getting in and out of Ukraine during a time of war.

Also, say the plan is to fly the official and their team into Kyiv’s airport. Do you leave the aircraft on the runway, thereby exposing it to potential attack by a Russian missile? Or do you fly it into nearby NATO territory for safekeeping, and then return once the principal and entourage are ready for the long ride home?

All these things and more are surely being worked out for a visit that will only take a few hours.

Meanwhile, the administration will notify news organizations about the details of the trip, giving them ample time to develop a coverage plan and identify the reporter who will travel in the press pool. They will be told no one can tweet or write on movements until the official is safely in Kyiv.

That means we’re unlikely to hear about the trip until it’s already underway — if it happens at all.

“Any potential visit — and again, I’m not previewing one — but any potential visit, you’d have to have security concerns. And we certainly wouldn’t do it if we couldn’t meet those concerns,” Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said Thursday on CNN.

OLEKSIY ARESTOVYCH, an adviser to Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, also told CNN such a visit would have “symbolic” and “practical” merits, adding Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN would “probably” be the one to make the trip since the top issue at the moment is the delivery of U.S.-provided weapons to Ukraine.

SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism.

War in Ukraine: 

— Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 19,900 personnel, 753 tanks, 1,968 armored combat vehicles, 366 artillery systems, 122 multiple-launch rocket systems, 160 warplanes, 144 helicopters, seven ships and 134 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— It will take about four weeks in total to close out the delivery of all $800 million in new security assistance to Ukraine. (U.S. Department of Defense)

— “The Russian occupiers continue to launch systematic missile and bomb strikes on military and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “It was established that the Russian command set a task to mobilize 60-70 thousand people on the territory of the so-called “DPR”. However, these figures were met by only 20 percent.” (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

— “President Putin’s speech on Tuesday highlighted his continued interest in the Donbas where Russia is striking Ukrainian forces in preparation for a renewed offensive. Urban centres have faced repeated indiscriminate attacks from Russia throughout the conflict. The towns of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka are likely to be Russian targets for similar levels of violence. The combination of widespread missile and artillery strikes and efforts to concentrate forces for an offensive represents a reversion to traditional Russian military doctrine.” (U.K. Ministry of Defense)

Global Response: 

— EU: The European Union is drafting a Russian oil embargo, which would be one of the biggest collective steps to punish Russia. It’s likely the ban would include a phase-in process to give Germany time to find alternative suppliers for its energy needs. Nothing is likely to be finalized until after France’s presidential election.

— France: France’s Foreign Ministry announced it will relocate its embassy from Lviv back to Kyiv.

Headlines:

— New Lines Magazine: “In a Kyiv Suburb, Wanton Destruction Amid the Stench of Death”

— The Wall Street Journal: “The Secret of Ukraine’s Military Success: Years of NATO Training”

— The Washington Post: “A Brit fighting in Ukraine said his unit would surrender. He’s now missing.”

UKE SUNK MY BATTLESHIP?: Kirby, the DoD spokesperson, on Thursday said the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet was still afloat and “operating under her own power” after an explosion aboard the vessel — which Ukraine said was the result of a missile strike and Russia said was caused by an internal fire detonating ammunition, Quint reports.

Kirby was unable to verify either country’s claim about the Soviet-era guided-missile cruiser Moskva, which he said is one of three cruisers in the Russian fleet and was operating roughly 60 miles south of Odesa — a Black Sea port city in southern Ukraine — at the time of the blast.

“We know she suffered an explosion,” Kirby said in an interview on MSNBC. “It looks like — from the images that we have been able to look at — it looks like it was a pretty sizable explosion, too. We don’t know what caused that explosion.”

National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN today told a crowd at The Economic Club in Washington, D.C. that U.S. officials were in touch overnight with their Ukrainian counterparts who say they struck the ship, but also noted the administration couldn’t independently confirm the claim. Still, he said, “it’s a big blow to Russia.”

The warship is now heading further east, he added, and U.S. officials assess it will likely dock at Sevastopol — a Black Sea port city in Crimea, the disputed peninsula south of Ukraine that Russia seized and annexed in 2014.

JEFFREY EDMONDS, who served as Russia director on former President BARACK OBAMA’s National Security Council, mentioned to NatSec Daily that Russia has only two other Slava-class guided-missile cruisers: the modernized Marshal Ustinov and the Varyag.

NO ‘SITTING ON THE FENCE’: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN had some tough words for countries not joining in the West’s anti-Russia campaign: You’re making a mistake.

“[L]et me now say a few words to those countries who are currently sitting on the fence, perhaps seeing an opportunity to gain by preserving their relationship with Russia and backfilling the void left by others. Such motivations are short-sighted,” she told a Wednesday crowd at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, D.C. “The future of our international order, both for peaceful security and economic prosperity, is at stake. And this is an order that benefits us all. And let’s be clear, the unified coalition of sanctioning countries will not be indifferent to actions that undermine the sanctions we’ve put in place.”

Sullivan was pressed on this point today during his event, when the host specifically asked if he was disappointed countries like Israel and India haven’t followed along. Support for America’s Ukraine policies and sanctions isn’t a “strict on-off switch,” Sullivan said. “This is an ongoing process, a work in progress.”

“We’re not trying to beat other countries over the head that have been more reluctant to get on board. What we’re trying to do is move steadily towards a greater consensus both around what Russia has done here and around what the right ways to respond to it are,” he continued.

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