How to play the new electric economy

For a certain sector of the economy the past week has been electric.

Item 1: Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk polls his Twitter followers if he should sell his Tesla shares. They say yes. TSLA tanks on the news and Musk loses $50 billion. Then Musk sells 5.2 million shares or $5.8 billion of stock (as of Friday.) Tesla shares rally. Musk is still the richest man in the world.

Item 2: On Tuesday, electric truck maker Rivian goes public. Its stock soars 29% in the biggest IPO since the company formerly known as Facebook debuted in 2012. Rivian’s (RIVN) market value of $100 billion is bigger than Ford’s or GM’s.

Item 3: Also on Tuesday, Hertz, which had its IPO this week, confirms it is going to buy 100,000 Teslas, highlighted in an ad campaign, “Let’s Go!” featuring Tom Brady.

So the week might sound kind of bananas but in this quarter of the business universe, that’s actually pretty much SOP. It’s also the case that EVs, Elon and all things electric aren’t fringe anymore. They’re a massive, rapidly growing and increasingly core part of our world. This week’s New Yorker cover pretty much sums it up — Don Quixote looking to tilt a cluster of giant wind turbines. You don’t want to fight this.

Welcome then to the new Economy Electric.

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What do I mean by that? Simply that there is a revolution happening right now that’s transforming all businesses, which use engines that burn fossil fuel, and forcing them over to electric power. It’s begun with cars, (though we’re still early days at least in the U.S.) “EV sales have been skyrocketing over the last couple years,” says Ram Chandrasekaran, an EV analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

“In the first three quarters, we’ve already exceeded all of 2020 sales. It’s been an exceptionally strong year. 70% are coming from China and Europe. In China and Europe they’re firmly in the mainstream now. In the U.S., EV sales have been lagging compared to China and Europe around 6% or so,” he said. That will change.

And there’s everything else. Like motorcycles, boats, and some day planes and all forms of transportation. And then there’s generators, farm tractors and so on. It is a massive shift and it’s coming right now.

At this point — Rivian notwithstanding — it’s mostly, one man, one company and one stock: Elon Musk and Tesla. So much has been written about Musk and Tesla, I’ll just boil it down to this: Musk is a visionary. And Tesla is groundbreaking. Those two statements are unassailable and are immutable regardless of what Musk does or what happens to the company, car or stock going forward.

Certainly the market has more than validated this. Beyond the fact that Tesla has cumulatively sold more than 2 million cars, consider that Musk, the personification of the electric revolution, is worth some $294 billion, (way richer than Jeff Bezos — $200 billion), and up $124 billion this year. And of course Musk’s vision and strategy encompass much more than just Tesla, which is an element of an electric ecosystem he’s building including SolarCity and a distributed power grid.

Tesla’s trillion dollar market capitalization — the most valuable car company on the planet — is of course tough to justify. “I don’t want to make any serious comment about Tesla’s market cap — it being higher than the next seven or eight automakers combined is somewhat comical,” says Chandrasekaran. But he adds: “That’s how things are sometimes.” (It’s ironic that Tesla is on this kind of trajectory, while GE, a company rooted in the history of humanity’s taming of electricity, is now a shadow of its former self and being broken up.)

But Tesla won’t be the only (dare I say) blue chip e-company forever. In fact one of the most serious parlor games on Wall Street right now is picking which other e-businesses will become dominant tomorrow. I want to go through some of these companies, but before that, some brief history about, yes, electricity.

The word “electric” comes from the Latin word electricus (“of amber” or “like amber,” also the elektron, the Greek word for “amber”) because one way we humans first became aware of electricity was when amber is rubbed it becomes magnetic.

Yes, Ben Franklin was an early pioneer. Some version of the kite and the key story may in fact be true. But no, Franklin didn’t “invent” electricity, (any more than Columbus “discovered” the new world.) Franklin did help harness it and maybe coined the phrase “electric battery.”

Other giants in the history of electricity include the likes of Thomas Edison, (who among many other things, was a co-founder of the aforementioned General Electric company.) His rivalry with George Westinghouse (AC versus DC) makes for an excellent movie, “The Current War,” starring Benedict Cumberbatch as Edison (I know, really?) There’s also of course the amazing Nikola Tesla, the namesake of two EV makers, which I wrote about here.

Then there’s British physicist Michael Faraday, who in 1850 was asked by William Gladstone, then the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what the practical value of electricity was. “One day sir, you may tax it,” was Faraday’s retort.

A quick word about Industrial Revolutions. The first one, from 1760 to 1820, wasn’t about electricity at all and was in fact driven by localized steam engines, textile looms, the cotton gin and other simply powered machines. The Second Industrial Revolution however, from 1870 to 1914, is when electrification began which led to the creation of giant steel, chemical businesses and scores of other industries as well.

Of course electricity was used for cars early on and for rails and buses right through, but the powerful oil and gas industries promoted internal combustion engines at the expense of electrics from the early 20th century right up to, well now. (“Who Killed the Electric Car” is just a recent example of many such stories.)

But now that’s all changing. Why? Awareness of global warming for one. Erika Myers, a senior EV analyst at the World Resources Institute, thinks electrifying the economy is “our best chance” to address climate change. “I would not say EVs are a silver bullet,” she adds. “There needs to be a lot of strategies for transportation. Transport is 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuels have provided 95% of transportation fuels up to this point.”

“There’s not enough biofuels — you can’t do enough sequestration to get there,” says Saul Griffith, co-founder and chief scientist at Rewiring America, as well as the author of “Electrify: An Optimist’s Playbook for Our Clean Energy Future.” “80% or 90% of our energy system has to go electric. People say hydrogen but hydrogen starts with green electricity.”

Remember too that technology is driving down the cost of going electric.

Now back to the new electric companies. First, because the first wave of this third revolution has been cars, the category is usually referred to as EVs, (electric vehicles). But when you look up, say a list of best EV stocks, (like this one and this one), they invariably include battery makers and other suppliers as well.

There are a handful of EV ETFs, such as this one and this one that focuses on China plays, but most are still small and not really pure plays, i.e. they hold, say, diversified chipmakers that produce chips for EVs, but also have major other lines of business as well.

Here then are a few categories:

CARS AND TRUCKS

“Even Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which I’d hardly call radical, estimates in 2025, 2026 the electric vehicle will cost less in the showroom than an internal combustion engine,” says Saul Griffith. “When electric vehicles are more cost efficient in 2025 — it has flipped in China, in Norway — then it’s game over.”

There are EV makers selling right now, Tesla but also Lucid and Rivian. (BTW, Musk’s arch rival Jeff Bezos’s company Amazon is a large investor in Rivian.) In China you have NIO, (a very popular ticker here at Yahoo Finance), BYD (which Charlie Munger has invested in), Xpeng and Li. Then there are those that shall we say, are on more extended timelines like Fisker (FSR), Canoo (GOEV), Faraday Future (FFIE), Lordstown (RIDE) and Xos (XOS).

Obviously Rivian has been the talk of the town, which as my colleague Rick Newman notes, is a bit bizarro, “Electric-vehicle startup Rivian [with its giant market cap] has never sold a vehicle until this year. GM sells around 7 million vehicles per year; Ford, 4 million.”

True that Rick. But sometimes Mr. Market likes bizarro.

Another interesting point about Rivian to consider. DataTrek suggests that: “Rivian is the first legitimate competition Tesla has ever had in terms of institutional investor interest. That could pull capital out of TSLA, and therefore the S&P 500.”

Of course Elon couldn’t resist a poke Tweet at Rivian: 

Some are saying that now is the time to sell Tesla, as in “Own Tesla Stock? Be Like Elon Musk and Sell” in the Wall Street Journal this week. Who knows, maybe this time the skeptics will be right. Ark Invests’ Cathie Wood is still a believer though, saying the recent dip in Tesla is, “is nothing but a blip,” on the way to her…