Another 323,000 individuals likely filed new claims last week

New weekly jobless claims likely rose just slightly from a pandemic-era low last week, pointing to sustained improvements in the labor market’s recovery.

The Labor Department is set to release its weekly jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial unemployment claims, week ended September 11: 323,000 expected and 310,000 during prior week
Continuing claims, week ended September 4: 2.740 million expected and 2.783 million during prior week

Initial jobless claims fell more than expected to reach their lowest level since March 2020 at the start of September, as the pace of those newly unemployed edged closer to pre-pandemic standards. New jobless claims had come in at a rate of around 220,000 per month throughout 2019.

“A combination of unfavorable seasonals and a surge in applications delayed by Hurricane Ida suggests claims will rebound to about 330K from 310K,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note. “But the trend is falling.”

The four-week moving average for weekly new claims has also moved to the lowest level in 18 months, coming in at about 339,500 as of last week. This metric helps smooth out some of the volatility in the weekly figures, and has been on a clear downward path throughout the year. The continued drop in new claims has also underscored the fact that labor shortages and difficulties in hiring have been the bigger drag on the labor market in recent months, rather than firings and separations.

The number of individuals still unemployed and claiming benefits over a longer period of time has also come down alongside the drop in new filers. As of Aug. 21, the total number of claimants across state and federal programs was just over 11.9 million, marking a drop of more than 250,000 compared to the prior week.

These total claimants sums, however, understate the real-time drop in total claimants, given the data is reported on a delay of several weeks. As of Sept. 6, federal pandemic-era unemployment benefits previously authorized by Congress expired across all states.

This included programs like Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which provided benefits for gig workers and contractors who did not qualify for regular state programs, and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, which offered extended benefits to those that exhausted regular state insurance. A total of 8.9 million Americans were claiming benefits between these two programs as of mid-August, comprising the clear majority of total claimants at that point.

While some economists and policymakers have suggested the end of enhanced federal unemployment benefits might catalyze a broader return to work, others have been more skeptical, considering the ongoing concerns around the coronavirus.

“Unfortunately Delta appears to have left workers uncomfortable returning to the workforce,” Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note on Wednesday. “All eyes are on whether the broader expiration of UI [unemployment insurance] benefits will prompt greater labor participation in the coming weeks.”

This post will be updated with the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Check back for updates.

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Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck