GDP News Updates Live: Experts predict Q2 GDP growth between 7.5-8.5%; RBI pegs it at 9.5%

A Reuters survey projects GDP data to show 8.4% year-on-year growth in the September quarter, the fastest pace among major economies, vs a 7.5% contraction in the same quarter last year.

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Aggregate capex of 24 states grew 62.2% in Q2 massively down from 98.4% in Q1.

Government capex grew 51.9% in Q2 as against 26.3% in the same previous quarter of the current fiscal

GDP seen growing at 8.3% in Q2, 9.4% full year: ICRA

The agency has attributed the higher growth to the nine consecutive quarters of over 3% agriculture growth, which has brightened consumer spending and the resultant uptick in private final consumption expenditure, which is likely to clip at around 10% in the September quarter of the current fiscal.

Government expected to continue to spend buoyed by higher tax collections

IIP growth was marginally higher in August

11.9% in August 2021
11.5% in July 2021

SBI sees scope for an upward bias

SBI Research has forecasted GDP growth for Q2 at around 8.1% (with upward bias) while Q2 GVA is estimated at 7.1%. India’s projected 8.1% growth rate in Q2FY22 is the highest growth across all economies, they said.

How it looks, so far:

The RBI put forth a 9.5% growth forecast for India, matching the IMF’s predictions

Last quarter’s numbers

GDP surged 20.1% in June quarter of FY22

India’s economy expanded at its fastest ever in the June quarter, helped by the low base of the year-earlier record contraction and a strong rebound in manufacturing and construction, data released in August showed.

Economy likely picked up in Sept quarter before Omicron spread

Data was expected to show that India’s economic recovery strengthened in the July-September quarter, helped by a pick-up in consumer spending, though the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant raised fears for the future.
Asia’s third-largest economy has been seeing a rebound from last year’s deep slump, boosted by rising vaccination rates and a pick-up in government spending.
But as the market awaited the figures, health authorities said they were tightening testing at airports, in the wake of the spread of the Omicron variant. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday ordered a review of plans to ease travel curbs.

Everyone’s projections for today’s numbers: