COVID – Business News Updates https://newsdaily.business Tue, 24 Jan 2023 17:28:49 +0000 en hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 https://newsdaily.business/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/cropped-handshake-hand-gesture-dollar-money-finance-coin_96px-32x32.png COVID - Business News Updates https://newsdaily.business 32 32 Dollar up after data signals brighter outlook for U.S. business activity https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/24/dollar-up-after-data-signals-brighter-outlook-for-u-s-business-activity/ https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/24/dollar-up-after-data-signals-brighter-outlook-for-u-s-business-activity/#respond Tue, 24 Jan 2023 17:28:49 +0000 https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/24/dollar-up-after-data-signals-brighter-outlook-for-u-s-business-activity/ NEW YORK, Jan 24 (Reuters) – The dollar rose against the euro on Tuesday after data showed U.S. business activity contracting for the seventh straight month in January but with signs the downturn was moderating. While U.S. business activity shrank in January, the downturn moderated across both the manufacturing and services sectors for the first […]]]>


NEW YORK, Jan 24 (Reuters) – The dollar rose against the euro on Tuesday after data showed U.S. business activity contracting for the seventh straight month in January but with signs the downturn was moderating.

While U.S. business activity shrank in January, the downturn moderated across both the manufacturing and services sectors for the first time since September and business confidence strengthened as the new year began.

“It just looks like another piece of data showing what the Fed has been preaching: the economy is resilient enough to take on more hikes,” said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.

Fed fund futures see only two more quarter-point rate hikes by the Fed to a peak of around 5% by June, before it starts cutting rates later in the year. The Federal Reserve itself has insisted it still has 75 bps of increases in the pipeline.

“It is clear looking at PMIs that the Fed has prevented expansion, but the economy has not taken a hit like many thought,” Perez said.

The dollar extended its gains against the euro but remained near 9-month lows hit in the previous session. The euro was 0.17% lower at $1.0852, just shy of the 9-month high of $1.0927 touched on Monday.

The euro itself was supported through the day after euro area data on Tuesday reinforced the view that the economy was weathering a winter of intense price pressures reasonably well, analysts said.

Surveys showed euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, and service-sector activity in Germany expanded for the first time since June, although price pressures remained sticky.

A stronger economy could potentially allow the ECB to raise interest rates more aggressively as it tackles inflation.

“There is probably enough in there to cement another 50 basis points in increases from the ECB,” TraderX market strategist Michael Brown said.

The U.S. business activity data helped lift the dollar to a near 1-week high against the yen. The U.S. currency was last up 0.03% to 130.7 yen.

Last week, the dollar fell to as low as 127.215 yen, its weakest since May, ahead of a Bank of Japan policy review at which investors bet the central bank might signal the end of its stimulus program. The BOJ, however, left policy unchanged, giving the dollar some respite.

Sterling was one of the worst-performing major currencies against the dollar, falling 0.71% on the day to $1.2288, after a survey showed British private-sector economic activity fell at its fastest rate in two years in January.

“Looking forward, we expect sterling to start underperforming neighboring European currencies as economic data highlights widening growth differentials,” Simon Harvey, who is head of FX Analysis at Monex Europe, said.

Meanwhile, bitcoin was little changed on the day at $22,878, steadying after having jumped by about a third in value since early January, as investors shook off pessimism following the high-profile collapse of the FTX crypto exchange FTX.

Additional reporting by Anada Cooper in London; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Simon Cameron-Moore, Christina Fincher and Andrea Ricci

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



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2023-01-24 15:47:00

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Biden grabs power by insisting COVID ’emergency’ still plagues US https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/20/biden-grabs-power-by-insisting-covid-emergency-still-plagues-us/ https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/20/biden-grabs-power-by-insisting-covid-emergency-still-plagues-us/#respond Fri, 20 Jan 2023 17:51:42 +0000 https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/20/biden-grabs-power-by-insisting-covid-emergency-still-plagues-us/ We’ve made it to 2023, nearly three years since the pandemic hit the United States in full force. The virus is less deadly, we have effective vaccines and life is pretty much back to normal for most of us.  If you’re President Joe Biden, however, the COVID-19 “emergency” is still front and center.  Don’t get me wrong. […]]]>






Read More:Biden grabs power by insisting COVID ’emergency’ still plagues US

2023-01-20 17:15:42

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Exclusive: ECB union says staff losing faith in leadership over inflation, pay https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/18/exclusive-ecb-union-says-staff-losing-faith-in-leadership-over-inflation-pay/ https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/18/exclusive-ecb-union-says-staff-losing-faith-in-leadership-over-inflation-pay/#respond Wed, 18 Jan 2023 11:37:11 +0000 https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/18/exclusive-ecb-union-says-staff-losing-faith-in-leadership-over-inflation-pay/ 40% of ECB staff has low or no trust Two-thirds say confidence is damaged 63% worried about ECB’s ability to protect purchasing power FRANKFURT, Jan 18 (Reuters) – (This Jan. 17 story has been corrected to restore the dropped words in paragraph 11) European Central Bank staff are losing confidence in the institution’s leadership following […]]]>


  • 40% of ECB staff has low or no trust
  • Two-thirds say confidence is damaged
  • 63% worried about ECB’s ability to protect purchasing power

FRANKFURT, Jan 18 (Reuters) – (This Jan. 17 story has been corrected to restore the dropped words in paragraph 11)

European Central Bank staff are losing confidence in the institution’s leadership following the ECB’s failure to control inflation and a pay award that lagged the leap in prices, according to a survey by trade union IPSO.

The responses underline that even central banks, whose primary responsibility is fighting inflation, are not immune to staff dissatisfaction with the sharply rising cost of living.

The survey was organised in the context of a dispute between IPSO, which holds six out of nine seats on the ECB’s staff committee, and the central bank’s board over pay and remote-working arrangements.

An ECB spokesperson did not comment directly on IPSO’s findings when asked but pointed to a separate staff survey, run by the ECB itself last year, showing that 83% of nearly 3,000 respondents were proud to work for the ECB and 72% would recommend it.

Results of IPSO’s survey, which largely focused on pay and remote-working arrangements but also included questions about trust in the board, were sent to ECB staff on Tuesday in an email, seen by Reuters.

They showed two-thirds of roughly 1,600 respondents said their trust in Lagarde and the rest of the six-member ECB board had been damaged by recent developments such as high inflation and a pay increase that did not match the rise in prices.

Asked how much trust they had in Lagarde and the board when it comes to leading and managing the ECB, the central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro, just under half of respondents said “moderate” (34.3%) or “high” (14.6%).

But over 40% of respondents said they had “low” (28.6%) or “no” (12%) trust, while 10.5% could not say.

“This is a serious concern for our institution, as no one can correctly lead an organisation without the trust of its workforce,” the union said in its email.

INFLATION SURGE, PAY BATTLES

The survey was the first by IPSO to ask about trust in top management since Christine Lagarde took over as ECB President in late 2019.

A similar IPSO survey of ECB staff, taken just before her predecessor Mario Draghi stepped down, showed 54.5% of 735 respondents rated his presidency “very good” or “outstanding”, with support for his policy measures even higher.

Then, however, inflation in the euro zone had been low for a decade. Its recent surge to multi-decade highs in countries around the world has seen a revival in battles over pay between workers and the companies and institutions that employ them.

And a majority of respondents in the October 2019 survey also complained about a lack of transparency in recruitment and perceived favouritism under Draghi.

The most recent Bank of England staff survey, also conducted in 2019, showed 64% of respondents had “trust and confidence in the Bank’s leadership”.

A 2022 U.S. government survey of employees at departments and federal agencies found that 61% of respondents had “a high level of respect” for their organisation’s senior leaders – roughly stable compared to the previous two years.

The ECB spokesperson also pointed to internal surveys in 2020-21 that found roughly 80% of respondents were satisfied with health-and-safety measures taken by the ECB in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

The latest IPSO survey showed 63% of staff who responded were worried about the ECB’s ability to protect their purchasing power after being handed a pay increase of just 4% last year – or roughly half the rise in consumer prices.

The ECB has been criticised by politicians, bankers and academics for initially underestimating a surge in the cost of living and then making up for it with large and painful increases in borrowing costs.

Lagarde, who is not an economist and had not been a central banker before joining the ECB, colourfully defended her board at an event with staff last month.

“If it wasn’t for them I’d be a sad, lonely cowgirl lost somewhere in the Pampa of monetary policy,” Lagarde said, according to a recording of the Dec. 19 town hall seen by Reuters.

She and fellow board members have long worried about the risk of a potential “wage-price spiral”, where higher salaries feed into prices, which they argue would make it harder for the ECB to bring inflation back down to its 2% target.

But IPSO said that concern is misplaced and workers should not be made to bear the brunt of the current bout in inflation.

“The ECB might be preaching lower real wages, but this is not our stance as your staff union,” it wrote in its message to ECB employees.

Editing by Catherine Evans

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



Read More:Exclusive: ECB union says staff losing faith in leadership over inflation, pay

2023-01-18 08:29:00

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China’s 2022 economic growth one of the worst on record, post-pandemic policy faces test https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/17/chinas-2022-economic-growth-one-of-the-worst-on-record-post-pandemic-policy-faces-test/ https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/17/chinas-2022-economic-growth-one-of-the-worst-on-record-post-pandemic-policy-faces-test/#respond Tue, 17 Jan 2023 11:29:50 +0000 https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/17/chinas-2022-economic-growth-one-of-the-worst-on-record-post-pandemic-policy-faces-test/ China Q4 GDP growth slows; 2022 growth one of worst on record 2022 GDP grows 3.0%, far below official target Dec factory output, retail sales weak but beat expectations Population shrinks for the first time since 1961 Policymakers vow to step up support for economy in 2023 BEIJING, Jan 17 (Reuters) – China’s economic growth […]]]>


  • China Q4 GDP growth slows; 2022 growth one of worst on record
  • 2022 GDP grows 3.0%, far below official target
  • Dec factory output, retail sales weak but beat expectations
  • Population shrinks for the first time since 1961
  • Policymakers vow to step up support for economy in 2023

BEIJING, Jan 17 (Reuters) – China’s economic growth in 2022 slumped to one of its worst levels in nearly half a century as the fourth quarter was hit hard by strict COVID curbs and a property market slump, raising pressure on policymakers to unveil more stimulus this year.

The quarterly growth and some of the December indicators such as retail sales beat market expectations, but analysts noted the overall economic impulse across China remained weak and highlighted the challenges facing Beijing after it abruptly lifted its “zero-COVID” policy last month.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.9% in October-December from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday, slower than the third-quarter’s 3.9% pace. The rate still exceeded the second quarter’s 0.4% expansion and market expectations of a 1.8% gain.

Beijing’s sudden relaxation of stringent anti-virus measures has boosted expectations of an economic revival this year, but it has also led to a sharp rise in COVID cases that economists say might hamper near term growth. A property slump and weak global demand also mean a rebound in growth will be heavily reliant on shell-shocked consumers.

“China’s 2023 will be bumpy; not only will it have to navigate the threat of new COVID-19 waves, but the country’s worsening residential property market and weak global demand for its exports will be significant brakes,” Harry Murphy Cruise, economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in a note.

For 2022, GDP expanded 3.0%, badly missing the official target of “around 5.5%” and braking sharply from 8.4% growth in 2021. Excluding the 2.2% expansion after the initial COVID hit in 2020, it’s the worst showing since 1976 – the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that wrecked the economy.

“Activity data in December surprised broadly to the upside, but remains weak, particularly across demand-side segments such as retail spending,” Louise Loo, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note.

The “data so far supports our long-held view that China’s reopening boost will be somewhat anaemic at the beginning, with consumer spending being a key laggard in the initial stages,” Loo said.

A Reuters poll forecast growth to rebound to 4.9% in 2023, as Chinese leaders move to tackle some key drags on growth – the “zero-COVID” policy and a severe property sector downturn. Most economists expect growth to pick up from the second quarter.

A strong rebound in China could temper an expected global recession, but it could also cause more inflationary headaches worldwide just when policymakers are starting to get a handle on record price surges.

Reuters Graphics

REOPENING CHALLENGES

Asian shares dropped after the Chinese data, while the yuan skidded to a one-week low.

On a quarterly basis, GDP stalled, coming in at 0.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% in July-September, highlighting underlying weakness across many sectors.

Beijing’s lifting of COVID curbs has seen businesses struggling with surging infections, suggesting a bumpy recovery in the near term.

“The ongoing ‘exit wave’ on the back of China’s faster-than-expected reopening has taken a heavy toll on economic activity in recent months, due to surging infections, a temporary labour shortage and supply chain disruptions,” economists at Goldman Sachs said, noting the annual contractions in output of both steel product and cement in December.

Factory output grew 1.3% in December from a year earlier, slowing from a 2.2% rise in November, while retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, shrank 1.8% last month after November’s 5.9% drop.

Official data showed unemployment eased despite manufacturing and services activity getting squeezed by the spike in COVID infections. The nationwide survey-based jobless rate dropped to 5.5% in December from 5.7% in November.

China’s top leaders have pledged to prioritise consumption expansion to support domestic demand and the broad economy this year, at a time when local exporters struggle in the wake of global recession risks. The central bank is also expected to steadily ease policy this year.

China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said.

PROPERTY, POPULATION HEADWINDS

China’s property industry was among the biggest drags on growth. Investment in the sector fell 10.0% year-on-year in 2022, the first decline since records began in 1999, and property sales slumped the most since 1992, NBS data showed, suggesting that government support measures were having minimal impact so far.

Authorities have rolled out a flurry of policies targeting homebuyers and property developers in recent weeks, to relieve a long-running liquidity squeeze that has hit developers and delayed the completion of many housing projects.

Adding to the challenges facing the economy and the government, China’s population in 2022 fell for the first time since 1961, the NBS data showed, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers and see India become the world’s most populous nation in 2023.

“The population will likely trend down from here in the coming years. This is very important, with implications for potential growth and domestic demand,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“Going forward, demographics will be a headwind. Economic growth will have to depend more on productivity growth, which is driven by government policies.”

Reporting by Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash and Liangping Gao
Editing by Shri Navaratnam

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



Read More:China’s 2022 economic growth one of the worst on record, post-pandemic policy faces test

2023-01-17 09:51:00

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Gold gains on softer dollar as markets await U.S. inflation data https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/12/gold-gains-on-softer-dollar-as-markets-await-u-s-inflation-data/ https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/12/gold-gains-on-softer-dollar-as-markets-await-u-s-inflation-data/#respond Thu, 12 Jan 2023 10:48:07 +0000 https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/12/gold-gains-on-softer-dollar-as-markets-await-u-s-inflation-data/ U.S. CPI due at 1330 GMT Dollar hovers near seven-month low Silver up more than 1% Jan 12 (Reuters) – Gold prices rose on Thursday to near an eight-month peak, helped by a weaker dollar, as investors braced for a U.S. inflation report that is expected to provide more clues to the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike […]]]>


  • U.S. CPI due at 1330 GMT
  • Dollar hovers near seven-month low
  • Silver up more than 1%

Jan 12 (Reuters) – Gold prices rose on Thursday to near an eight-month peak, helped by a weaker dollar, as investors braced for a U.S. inflation report that is expected to provide more clues to the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,884.61 per ounce, as of 0956 GMT, after hitting its highest since early May at $1,886.59 on Wednesday.

U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $1,887.80.

“Gold seems to be drawing strength from investor caution ahead of the key U.S. inflation report this afternoon,” FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga said.

“The precious metal continues to trade around the $1,880 resistance level and may remain buoyed by a shaky dollar. Nevertheless, prices remain bullish and could push higher if inflation continues to cool in the largest economy in the world.”

The dollar languished near seven-month low against its rivals, making gold more attractive for other currency holders.

The U.S. consumer price index data are due at 1330 GMT. Economists polled by Reuters estimate that consumer prices were up 6.5% year-on-year in December, moderating from a 7.1% rise in November.

Boston Fed bank leader Susan Collins said she is inclined to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at the central bank’s upcoming policy meeting, the New York Times reported.

Money market participants see a 75% chance the Fed will raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points in February.

Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

“If lower-than-expected CPI results are announced, we may see the gold price above $1,900. However, any upward move is likely to be very short-term as investors will lock in profits,” said Michael Langford, director at corporate advisory firm AirGuide.

Elsewhere, silver gained 1.3% to $23.73 per ounce, platinum was steady at $1,071.16 and palladium rose 0.3% to $1,779.09.

Reporting by Brijesh Patel, Arundhati Sarkar and Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



Read More:Gold gains on softer dollar as markets await U.S. inflation data

2023-01-12 10:05:00

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Goldman job cuts hit investment banking, global markets hard -source https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/11/goldman-job-cuts-hit-investment-banking-global-markets-hard-source/ https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/11/goldman-job-cuts-hit-investment-banking-global-markets-hard-source/#respond Wed, 11 Jan 2023 22:46:21 +0000 https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/11/goldman-job-cuts-hit-investment-banking-global-markets-hard-source/ Mass redundancies, spending review beckons for Wall Street giant Cuts to all major divisions expected, globally Restructuring in Asian wealth unit kicks off Wednesday’s layoffs NEW YORK/LONDON/HONG KONG, Jan 11 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs (GS.N) began laying off staff on Wednesday in a sweeping cost-cutting drive, with around a third of those affected coming from […]]]>


  • Mass redundancies, spending review beckons for Wall Street giant
  • Cuts to all major divisions expected, globally
  • Restructuring in Asian wealth unit kicks off Wednesday’s layoffs

NEW YORK/LONDON/HONG KONG, Jan 11 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs (GS.N) began laying off staff on Wednesday in a sweeping cost-cutting drive, with around a third of those affected coming from the investment banking and global markets division, a source familiar with the matter said.

The long-expected jobs cull at the Wall Street titan is expected to represent the biggest contraction in headcount since the financial crisis. It is likely to affect most of the bank’s major divisions, with its investment banking arm facing the deepest cuts, a source told Reuters this month.

Just over 3,000 employees will be let go, the source, who could not be named, said on Monday. A separate source confirmed on Wednesday that cuts had started.

The cuts are part of broader reductions across the banking industry as a possible global recession looms. At least 5,000 people are in the process of being cut from various banks. In addition to the 3,000 from Goldman, Morgan Stanley (MS.N) has cut about 2% of its workforce, or 1,600 people, a source said last month while HSBC (HSBA.L) is shedding at least 200, sources previously said.

Last year was challenging across groups including credit, equities, and investment banking broadly, said Paul Sorbera, president of Wall Street recruitment firm Alliance Consulting. “Many didn’t make budgets.”

“It’s just part of Wall Street,” Sorbera said. “We’re used to seeing layoffs.”

The latest cuts will reduce about 6% of Goldman’s headcount, which stood at 49,100 at the end of the third quarter.

The firm’s headcount had added more than 10,000 jobs since the coronavirus pandemic as markets boomed.

The reductions come as U.S. banking giants are forecast to report lower profits this week. Goldman Sachs is expected to report a net profit of $2.16 billion in the fourth-quarter, according to mean forecast by analysts on Refinitiv Eikon, down 45% from $3.94 billion net profit in the same period a year earlier.

Shares of Goldman Sachs have partially recovered from a 10% fall last year. Stock was up 2% in afternoon trade, up around 6% year-to-date.

LAYOFFS AROUND GLOBE

Goldman’s layoffs began in Asia on Wednesday, where Goldman completed cutting back its private wealth management business and let go of 16 private banking staff across its Hong Kong, Singapore and China offices, a source with knowledge of the matter said.

About eight staff were also laid off in Goldman’s research department in Hong Kong, the source added, with layoffs ongoing in the investment banking and other divisions.

At Goldman’s central London hub, rainfall lessened the prospect of staff huddles. Several security personnel actively patrolled the building’s entrance, but few people were entering or leaving the property. A glimpse into the bank’s recreational area just beyond its lobby showed a handful of staffers in deep conversation but few signs of drama. Wine bars and eateries local to the office were also short of post-lunch trade, in stark contrast to large-scale layoffs of the past when unlucky staffers would typically gather to console one another and plan their next career moves.

In New York, employees were seen streaming into headquarters during the morning rush.

Goldman’s redundancy plans will be followed by a broader spending review of corporate travel and expenses, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, as the U.S. bank counts the costs of a massive slowdown in corporate dealmaking and a slump in capital markets activity since the war in Ukraine.

Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

The company is also cutting its annual bonus payments this year to reflect depressed market conditions, with payouts expected to fall about 40%.

Reporting By Sinead Cruise and Iain Withers in London, Selena Li in Hong Kong, Scott Murdoch in Sydney and Saeed Azhar in New York; Editing by Megan Davies, Bernadette Baum and Josie Kao

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



Read More:Goldman job cuts hit investment banking, global markets hard -source

2023-01-11 21:55:00

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China’s big cities are starting to look past Covid, while rural areas brace for infections https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/06/chinas-big-cities-are-starting-to-look-past-covid-while-rural-areas-brace-for-infections/ https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/06/chinas-big-cities-are-starting-to-look-past-covid-while-rural-areas-brace-for-infections/#respond Fri, 06 Jan 2023 10:33:51 +0000 https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/06/chinas-big-cities-are-starting-to-look-past-covid-while-rural-areas-brace-for-infections/ Subway passenger traffic in Shanghai is quickly returning to levels seen before the latest Covid wave, according to Wind data. Pictured here is a subway car in the city on Jan. 4, 2023. Hugo Hu | Getty Images News | Getty Images BEIJING — China will likely be able to live with Covid-19 by the […]]]>


Subway passenger traffic in Shanghai is quickly returning to levels seen before the latest Covid wave, according to Wind data. Pictured here is a subway car in the city on Jan. 4, 2023.

Hugo Hu | Getty Images News | Getty Images

BEIJING — China will likely be able to live with Covid-19 by the end of March, based on how quickly people have returned to the streets, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie.

Subway and road data show traffic in major cities is rebounding, he pointed out, indicating the worst of the latest Covid wave has passed.

“The dramatic U-turn in China’s Covid policy since mid-Nov implies deeper short-term economic contraction but faster reopening and recovery,” Hu said in a report Wednesday. “The economy could see a strong recovery in Spring.”

In the last several days, the southern city of Guangzhou and the tourist destination of Sanya said they’d passed the peak of the Covid wave.

Chongqing municipal health authorities said Tuesday that daily visitors to major fever clinics was just over 3,000 — down sharply from Dec. 16 when the number of patients received topped 30,000. The province-level region has a population of about 32 million.

Stock market could catch tailwind from China ending 'zero-Covid,' says Hightower's Link

Chongqing was the most congested city in mainland China during Thursday morning’s rush hour, according to Baidu traffic data. The figures showed increased traffic from a week ago across Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other major cities.

As of Wednesday, subway ridership in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou had climbed significantly from the lows of the last few weeks — but had only recovered to about two-thirds of last year’s levels, according to Wind Information.

Caixin’s monthly survey of services businesses in December found they were the most optimistic they’d been in about a year-and-a-half, according to a release Thursday. The seasonally adjusted business activity index rose to 48 in December, up from a six-month low of 46.7 in November.

That below-50 reading still indicates a contraction in business activity. The index for a separate Caixin survey of manufacturers edged down to 49 in December, from 49.4 in November. Their optimism was the highest in ten months.

Poorer, rural areas next

Shanghai medical researchers projected in a study that the latest Covid wave would pass through major Chinese cities by the end of 2022, while rural areas — and more distant provinces in central and western China — would be hit by infections in mid- to late-January.

“The duration and magnitude of upcoming outbreak could be dramatically enhanced by the extensive travels during the Spring Festival (January 21, 2023),” the researchers said in a paper published in late December by Frontiers of Medicine, a journal sponsored by China’s Ministry of Education.

Typically hundreds of millions of people travel during the holiday, also known as the Lunar New Year.

The researchers said senior citizens, especially those with underlying health conditions, in China’s remote areas face a greater risk of severe illness from the highly transmissible omicron variant. The authors were particularly worried about the lack of medicine and intensive care units in the the countryside.

Even before the pandemic, China’s public health system was stretched. People from across the country often traveled to crowded hospitals in the capital city of Beijing in order to get better health care than they could in their hometowns.

Oxford Economics senior economist Louise Loo remained cautious about a rapid rebound in China’s economy.

“A normalisation in economic activity will take some time, requiring among other things a change in public perceptions towards contracting Covid and vaccine effectiveness,” Loo said in a report Wednesday.

The firm expects China’s GDP will grow by 4.2% in 2023.

Lingering long-term risk

The medical researchers also warned of the risk that omicron outbreaks on the mainland “might appear in multiple waves,” with new surges in infections possible in late 2023. “The importance of regular monitoring of circulating SARS-CoV-2 sublineages and variants across China shall not be overestimated in the months and years to come.”

However, amid a lack of timely information, the World Health Organization said Wednesday it was asking China for “more rapid, regular, reliable data on hospitalizations and deaths, as well as more comprehensive, real-time viral sequencing.”

China in early December abruptly ended many of its stringent Covid controls that had restricted business and social activity. On Sunday, the country is set to formally end a quarantine requirement for inbound travelers, while restoring the ability of Chinese citizens to travel abroad for leisure. The country imposed strict border controls beginning in March 2020 in an attempt to contain Covid domestically.

Why China shows no sign of backing away from its 'zero-Covid' strategy



Read More:China’s big cities are starting to look past Covid, while rural areas brace for infections

2023-01-06 03:33:00

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Dollar jumps, U.S. stocks buck global rally https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/03/dollar-jumps-u-s-stocks-buck-global-rally/ https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/03/dollar-jumps-u-s-stocks-buck-global-rally/#respond Tue, 03 Jan 2023 22:31:00 +0000 https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/03/dollar-jumps-u-s-stocks-buck-global-rally/ Global shares edge up, but Wall Street drops Correlation with dollar softens Yen takes a breather from recent rally LONDON/NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) – The dollar jumped on Tuesday as oil prices sank, while U.S. stocks bucked a global equities rally in a macro-packed week that could offer a steer on when and where […]]]>


  • Global shares edge up, but Wall Street drops
  • Correlation with dollar softens
  • Yen takes a breather from recent rally

LONDON/NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) – The dollar jumped on Tuesday as oil prices sank, while U.S. stocks bucked a global equities rally in a macro-packed week that could offer a steer on when and where U.S. interest rates might peak.

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.2%, dragged by losses in U.S. stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) ended little changed, the S&P 500 (.SPX) dropped 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 0.76%.

Losses in U.S. stocks were led by a 12.2% tumble in electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA.O) after it missed Wall Street estimates for quarterly deliveries. IPhone maker Apple Inc (AAPL.O) dropped 3.7% to its lowest since June 2021 following a rating downgrade due to production cuts in China.

The U.S. dollar firmed ahead of Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, with expectations they will signal more policy tightening is in store.

A higher dollar walloped oil prices, which also took a beating from concerns about slowing global economic growth, especially after data showed China’s factory activity shrank in December.

“We expect the December FOMC minutes to shed additional light on Fed officials’ policy views for 2023. Note that at the meeting, the Committee signalled broad expectations for a substantially higher terminal rate this year,” analysts at TD Securities said in a note.

The dollar index jumped 0.94% to 104.64.

The euro was the worst-performing currency against the dollar , falling by the most since late September, after German regional inflation data showed consumer price pressures eased sharply in December, thanks in large part to government measures to contain natural gas bills for households and businesses.

Data on U.S. payrolls this week is expected to show the labour market remains tight, while EU consumer prices could show some slowdown in inflation as energy prices ease.

“Energy base effects will bring about a sizeable reduction in inflation in the major economies in 2023, but stickiness in core components, much of this stemming from tight labour markets, will prevent an early dovish policy ‘pivot’ by central banks,” analysts at NatWest Markets wrote in a note.

They expect interest rates to top out at 5% in the United States, 2.25% in the EU and 4.5% in Britain and to stay there for the entire year. Markets, on the other hand, are pricing in rate cuts for late 2023, with fed fund futures implying a range of 4.25% to 4.5% by December.

“The thing that makes me nervous about this year is that we still do not know the full impact of the very significant monetary tightening that’s taken place across the advanced world,” Berenberg Senior Economist Kallum Pickering said.

“It takes a good year, or 18 months, for the full effect to kick in,” he said.

Central banks have expressed concern about rising wages, even as consumers have struggled to keep up with the soaring cost of living and companies are running out of room to protect their profitability by raising their own prices.

However, said Pickering, the labour market tends to lag the broader economy by some time, meaning there is a risk that central banks could be raising interest rates by more than the economy can withstand.

“What central banks are inducing is essentially excess cyclicality, which is – they overstimulated in 2021 and triggered an inflationary boom and then overtightened in 2022 and triggered a disinflationary recession. It’s exactly the opposite of what you want central banks to do,” he said.

EUROPEAN SHARES RALLY

On the markets, European shares rose thanks to gains in classic defensive sectors, such as healthcare and food and beverages. Drugmakers Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO), Astrazeneca (AZN.L) and Roche (ROG.S) were among the biggest positive weights on the STOXX 600 (.STOXX), along with Nestle (NESN.S)

The STOXX, which lost 13% in 2022, rose 1.2%. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE), the only major European index not to trade on Monday, rose 1.4%.

Markets have for a while priced in an eventual U.S. easing, but they were badly wrong-footed by the Bank of Japan’s shock upward shift in its ceiling for bond yields.

The BOJ is now considering raising its inflation forecasts in January to show price growth close to its 2% target in fiscal 2023 and 2024, according to the Nikkei.

Such a move at its next policy meeting on Jan. 17-18 would only add to speculation of an end to ultra-loose policy, which has essentially acted as a floor for bond yields globally.

The policy shift has boosted the yen across the board, with the dollar losing 5% in December and the euro 2.3%.

The yen took a breather on Tuesday, easing 0.3% against the dollar to 130.895. The dollar earlier touched a six-month low of 129.52 yen .

Oil succumbed to the strength of the dollar, and concern about demand in China, the world’s second-largest economy, added to the downward momentum.

A batch of surveys has shown China’s factory activity shrank at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as COVID infections swept through production lines.

“China is entering the most dangerous weeks of the pandemic,” warned analysts at Capital Economics.

Brent crude lost 4.2% to settle at $82.10 a barrel.

Reporting by Koh Gui Qing in New York and Amanda Cooper in London
Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney
Editing by Andrea Ricci and Matthew Lewis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



Read More:Dollar jumps, U.S. stocks buck global rally

2023-01-03 22:18:00

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Oil falls as outlook for China, global economy weigh https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/03/oil-falls-as-outlook-for-china-global-economy-weigh/ https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/03/oil-falls-as-outlook-for-china-global-economy-weigh/#respond Tue, 03 Jan 2023 16:29:45 +0000 https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/03/oil-falls-as-outlook-for-china-global-economy-weigh/ LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) – Oil prices edged lower in volatile trade on Tuesday as weak demand data from China, a gloomy economic outlook and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed. Brent crude futures fell $1.07, or 1.25%, to $84.84 a barrel by 1447 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.15, or 1.43%, at […]]]>


LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) – Oil prices edged lower in volatile trade on Tuesday as weak demand data from China, a gloomy economic outlook and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed.

Brent crude futures fell $1.07, or 1.25%, to $84.84 a barrel by 1447 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.15, or 1.43%, at $79.11, having shed more than $2 earlier in the session.

Both contracts had risen more than $1 in early trade.

“Brent and WTI have recovered almost 15% from the lows a few weeks ago as traders continue to price in stronger Chinese demand,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

“The outlook remains highly uncertain, though, which should ensure oil prices remain highly volatile.”

The Chinese government has raised export quotas for refined oil products in the first batch for 2023. Traders attributed the increase to expectations of poor domestic demand as the world’s largest crude importer continues to battle waves of COVID-19 infections.

In further bearish news, China’s factory activity shrank in December as the surging COVID-19 infections disrupted production and weighed on demand after Beijing largely removed anti-virus curbs.

Adding to the gloomy economic outlook, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Sunday said that the United States, Europe and China – the main engines of global growth – were all slowing simultaneously, making 2023 tougher than 2022 for the global economy.

Prices are also under pressure from a stronger dollar , which makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on demand.

The market will be looking for indications from the U.S. Fed’s December policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in December after four consecutive increases of 75 bps each.

Also on the radar, U.S. December payrolls data is due on Friday, which is expected to show that the labour market remains tight.

Looking ahead, Commerzbank said it expects the global economic outlook to play a “much more important role” in oil price developments than production decisions taken by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known collectively as OPEC+.

The bank expects signs of economic recovery “in key economic areas” to push Brent back towards $100 a barrel, which it said could happen from the second quarter of the year onwards.

Reporting by Rowena Edwards
Additional reporting by Florence Tan and Trixie Yap in Singapore
Editing by David Evans and David Goodman

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



Read More:Oil falls as outlook for China, global economy weigh

2023-01-03 15:07:00

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Fired during COVID, Bali’s low paid now demand double the pay | Business and Economy https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/02/fired-during-covid-balis-low-paid-now-demand-double-the-pay-business-and-economy/ https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/02/fired-during-covid-balis-low-paid-now-demand-double-the-pay-business-and-economy/#respond Mon, 02 Jan 2023 10:17:10 +0000 https://newsdaily.business/2023/01/02/fired-during-covid-balis-low-paid-now-demand-double-the-pay-business-and-economy/ Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia – Made, an Airbnb host who manages a luxury villa on Bali’s sultry west coast, spent two months looking for a gardener after the last one quit without notice. “I advertised on Facebook five times, gradually increasing the salary until the fifth time when I found someone,” Made, who like many Indonesians […]]]>


Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia – Made, an Airbnb host who manages a luxury villa on Bali’s sultry west coast, spent two months looking for a gardener after the last one quit without notice.

“I advertised on Facebook five times, gradually increasing the salary until the fifth time when I found someone,” Made, who like many Indonesians goes by only one name, told Al Jazeera.  “By then I had increased the salary by 60 percent.”

Made’s experience is far from unique on the popular island resort.

As tourism in Bali roars back to life after the scrapping of most COVID-19 restrictions, workers are in short supply.

More than 1.4 million foreign tourists visited Bali between January and October of 2022, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics, compared with just a few dozen arrivals in 2021.

Figures for November and December have not been released, but local authorities said last month they had planned for up to 1.5 million arrivals during the Christmas period.

Nearly half of workers in Bali, where tourism accounts for 60-80 percent of the economy, reported losing income in 2020. But now, employers cannot hire fast enough.

“What we are finding is it’s really hard to find qualified and middle-ranking staff because after losing their jobs, they went back to their villages and set up little businesses selling phone cards or that sort of thing,” Will Meyrick, a Scottish chef who co-owns several restaurants in Bali, told Al Jazeera.

“They are earning the same amount of money for only a few hours of work per day, and the government is giving free online business courses. It’s the same as in the West. People who worked from home want to continue doing so. If you want to get them back you have to give them at least 50 percent more than what they were earning in 2019.”

Opportunities outside hospitality

Ina, an executive at a luxury hotel in Yogyakarta, Java, is among the many hospitality workers demanding better pay and conditions.

After the Bali hotel she was working at cut her wages by three-quarters during the first year of the pandemic, Ina found her current job in Yogyakarta at her full salary.

But now, head hunters are trying to lure her back to Bali.

“Tourism in Bali has bounced back for the festive season and the G20, so anyone who got rid of staff during the pandemic is trying to fill those roles again,” Ina, who asked to use a pseudonym, told Al Jazeera.

“Three different hotels in Bali have offered me jobs this month. But I’m not even considering them until they offer more pay.”

Some former hospitality workers have found they can do better working in the gig economy.

Ida Bagus Nuyama, a driver for the Indonesian ride-hailing service Gojek, has doubled his monthly earnings since losing his job as a housekeeper at a villa in 2020.

“Now I earn four million rupiahs ($257) a month after paying for expenses and it’s not hard work like at the villa,” Nuyama told Al Jazeera. “I just drive around and listen to music all day.”

Job opportunities in the cruise ship industry are a further headache for employers — and a boon to jobseekers.

“We have a huge shortage of chefs in Bali,” Kit Cahill, manager of Bubble Hotel Bali, told Al Jazeera.

“You advertise, you offer the job, but they don’t show up because a lot of quality staff left to take jobs on cruise ships.”

Kit Cahill leans against a rock retaining wall in a yoga pose with one foot planted in the sand with a surfboard stood up next to her and a medium-sized dog looking off in the distance.
Bali hotel managers such as Kit Cahill are struggling to find staff as tourism rebounds from the pandemic [Courtesy of Ian Neubauer]

Mitchell Anseiwciz, the Australian co-owner of Ohana’s, a beach club and boutique hotel on Nusa Lembongan, a satellite island of Bali, has had several employees quit for cruise ship jobs.

“I can’t blame them. It’s a great opportunity to see the world for people who otherwise wouldn’t travel and the cruise ships do a brilliant job of training,” Anseiwciz told Al Jazeera.

Anseiwciz said that while finding and retaining skilled staff has always been a challenge on Nusa Lembongan because of its remote location, his business has mitigated those challenges by being an “employer of choice”.

“We have a reputation for paying correctly, on time and honouring all employee entitlements like health and pension, fair work conditions, holiday pay and sick leave,” he said.

For casual workers, the incentives of the cruise industry include vastly higher salaries than they would otherwise be able to earn.

Cruise lines such as Carnival and Norwegian can pay unskilled staff $16,000-$20,000 per year — a sizable sum in Bali, where the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is less than $5,000. With only marginal living expenses, crew members are typically able to save a big chunk of their income.

“In cruise ships, the income is much, much better,” I Made Alit Mertyasa, a former guide with a Bali-based motorcycle touring company who now works as a housekeeping attendant for the Carnival Sunrise cruise ship, told Al Jazeera.

Ni Luh Putu Rustini holding a child on her lap.
Nanny Ni Luh Putu Rustini has doubled her rates since the pandemic [Courtesy of Ian Neubauer]

Back in Bali, Ni Luh Putu Rustini, a freelance nanny who has doubled her rates since the pandemic, said that employers could no longer hope to retain staff by offering the minimum wage, which ranges from 2.4 million to 2.9 million rupiahs ($154-$186) per month depending on the district.

“During the pandemic, people would work for any money or just food,” Rustini told Al Jazeera.

“But now you have to offer 3.2 million rupiahs [$206] per month to even find someone to work and 5 to 6 million rupiahs [$321-$386] per month to keep them. It’s very easy to find a job now so people are no longer satisfied with low salaries like before.”



Read More:Fired during COVID, Bali’s low paid now demand double the pay | Business and Economy

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