Fund managers ditch Russian assets, global stocks slide, bitcoin rises after latest sanctions – live | Business

Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics, said:

The war in Ukraine will prevent US inflation from falling as much as it otherwise would have in the coming months, but it will have little impact on the real economy, so we doubt it will stop the Fed.

• Even after the recent escalation of Western sanctions, the direct impact of the conflict on the US economy is still likely to be negligible. Goods exports to Russia and Ukraine combined were worth just $9bn last year, and US banks have little direct exposure to either country. The conflict may drive renewed disruptions to some global supply chains but, again, the geographic distance means the US is far less exposed than continental Europe.
• Instead, the main impact will come via the rise in global commodity prices. The further rise in crude oil prices to $100 per barrel for WTI, up from $85 at the end of January, means headline inflation will remain worryingly elevated over next couple of months. Base effects mean that, even if prices don’t fall back, energy inflation will still fall this year, but that decline will be a bit slower than we previously anticipated.
• Retail gasoline prices could hit $4 per gallon soon, up from $3.40 in January, meaning that households will be spending an additional $75bn annualised on filling up at the pump.
• While rising food inflation may weigh further on household purchasing power, the US is a net exporter of agricultural commodities, particularly wheat, corn and soybeans. It’s also worth noting that, while European natural gas prices have surged, the US market has been unaffected.
• Financial market contagion is still possible, but the resilience in recent days is reassuring.
• We’ll be watching for any hints from Chair Jerome Powell at his congressional testimony tomorrow but, while we suspect the increased uncertainty makes a 50bp rate hike next month even less likely, we still expect the Fed to raise rates by 25bp at least four times this year.

Here is our full story on the equivalent factory survey for Britain. UK manufacturers are facing a sharp rise in costs as the Russian invasion of Ukraine undermines the progress made towards fixing global supply chains before the conflict broke out, economists have warned.

Output growth among American manufacturers picked up in February thanks to stronger demand and easing supply disruption, according to the latest monthly snapshot from IHS Markit.

It warned that the war in Ukraine was likely to lead to further supply chain disruption, higher inflation and a reversal in business optimism.

Although input costs increased at the slowest pace for nine months last month, selling prices ticked higher at the sharpest rate since last November.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 57.3 in February, from 55.5 in January and only slightly lower than the ‘flash’ estimate of 57.5.

The headline figure was below the peaks seen in 2021, but signalled a stronger upturn in the health of the manufacturing sector, with sharper output and new order expansions contributing to overall growth.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at Markit, said:

With the survey data collected prior to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the full impact of the situation is yet to appear in the data. Supply chains are likely to be further disrupted, with existing shortages exacerbated by safety stock building, and prices will likely come under further upward pressure.

Perhaps most important will be the effect on business optimism and whether the improvement in prospects seen in February will be reversed, which could lead to reduced spending and investment.

Wall Street has slipped at the open, as banking stocks declined further, while surging oil prices boosted energy stocks. The Dow jones industrial average fell 80 points to 33,813, a 0.2% drop, while the S&P 500 opened almost 11 points lower at 4,363 and the Nasdaq dropped 34 points, or 0.25%, to 13,716.

While Asian shares moved cautiously higher, European shares are firmly in the red again. The UK’s FTSE 100 has lost 50 points, or 0.66%, to 7,408 while stock markets in Germany, France and Italy have all slid by more than 2%.

Oil, gas and other commodity prices continue to climb. Brent crude has jumped $6 to $103.93 a barrel after touching a seven-year high of close to $106 last Thursday, while US light crude is up $5.65% at $101.28 a barrel. Both are about 6% higher on the day.

The benchmark British natural gas contract has advanced 14.5% to 272.30p per therm and the Dutch contract has advanced 17% to €115.62 per megawatt hour.

Wheat prices have hit a fresh 13-year high and corn prices have also gained 5% in Chicago, amid fears over supply from Russia and Ukraine, major exporters of wheat and corn.

In Moscow, the rouble is sliding again, trading 5.3% lower at 99.6 per dollar. The latest western sanctions drove the Russian currency to a fresh record low of 120 per dollar yesterday. Against the euro, it has lost 3.7% to 109.9.

The Moscow stock exchange remains closed for a second day and the Central Bank of Russia said it would announce before 9am Moscow time tomorrow whether it will reopen.

Here is a round-up of today’s stories:

Oil and gas prices and other commodities have jumped again today. Wheat futures in Chicago rose more than 5% to hit $9.84 a bushel, the highest since April 2008.

Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat and together with Ukraine, accounts for about a third of the global wheat supply. Both countries are a major corn producers, and corn futures climbed nearly 5% to $7.25 per bushel, the highest since last May.

This threatens to push global food prices, which were already surging before the war in Ukraine, even higher.

Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) is considering pulling out of Russia, and would be the first European bank to do so since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last Thursday, Reuters reported, citing sources.

RBI has operated in Russia through its Moscow-based subsidiary since 1996, a few years after the Soviet Union collapsed. That business is one of the biggest banks operating in Russia, the 10th biggest by assets, and contributed almost a third of the Austrian banking group’s net profit of €1.5bn last year.

A decision to quit Russia (and Ukraine) is not imminent but could be triggered if RBI’s businesses in those countries need further cash or capital, one of the sources told Reuters. The other source said RBI could exit Russia and Ukraine by handing over ownership to another entity, or temporarily suspend activity.

Russia’s prime minister Mikhail Mishustin has said Moscow would temporarily stop foreigners selling assets, complicating any attempts to quit the country.