AUDUSD up for the 3rd day. What will keep the pair going higher in the 4th day?

The
 
 AUDUSD 
AUD/USD

The AUD/USD is the currency pair encompassing the Australian dollar of the Commonwealth of Australia (symbol $, code AUD), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one Australian dollar. For example, when the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7500, it means 1 Australian dollar is equivalent to 0.75 US dollars. The Australian dollar (AUD) is the world’s fifth most traded currency, whilst the US Dollar (USD) is the world’s most traded currency, resulting in a very liquid pair, with tight spreads, often staying within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range on most forex brokers. AUD/USD Popular Among Various Types of TradersA lot of traders consider the AUD/USD to perhaps be the most consistent currency pair with respect to swing trading, as it has often moved in steadfast cycles.Having said that, every pair presents its own challenges for traders.The AUD/USD is very popular with swing traders, with the four-hour timeframe being, historically at least, more dependable than others. Historically the AUD/USD is influenced by interest rate differentials, commodity prices, government credit ratings, and overall sentiment and speculation.

The AUD/USD is the currency pair encompassing the Australian dollar of the Commonwealth of Australia (symbol $, code AUD), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one Australian dollar. For example, when the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7500, it means 1 Australian dollar is equivalent to 0.75 US dollars. The Australian dollar (AUD) is the world’s fifth most traded currency, whilst the US Dollar (USD) is the world’s most traded currency, resulting in a very liquid pair, with tight spreads, often staying within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range on most forex brokers. AUD/USD Popular Among Various Types of TradersA lot of traders consider the AUD/USD to perhaps be the most consistent currency pair with respect to swing trading, as it has often moved in steadfast cycles.Having said that, every pair presents its own challenges for traders.The AUD/USD is very popular with swing traders, with the four-hour timeframe being, historically at least, more dependable than others. Historically the AUD/USD is influenced by interest rate differentials, commodity prices, government credit ratings, and overall sentiment and speculation.
Read this Term made a late push higher toward the close of the day yesterday, and in the process moved above the 50% retracement of the 2022 trading range at 0.71405 – but only by a few pips. The price also moved away from the 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 0.71245) after trading above and below in the Asian and early NY session (but momentum faded fairly quickly).

Although the break above the 50% was only by a few pips, it was good enough for the buyers who – after a few hours in the Asian session – pushed the pair higher toward the next target at the high from last week at 0.71679 (see post from late yesterday HERE). A corrective move ensued, but the midpoint level held (the low reached 0.71446), and the price was off to the upside again.

The high today ended up surpassing the 61.8% target at 0.7181 reaching a high of 0.7194. The price has been trading above and below the 61.8% over the last 8 trading hours.

What now?

The pair is up for 3 consecutive days. Like the 50% yesterday, it would be the best case scenario if the buying can hold near 61.8% and take the next steps to the upside. I see the 0.72048 to 0.72138 as a target, followed by the 100 day MA at 0.72478.

On a dip, close support will come in near the high from last week and high from earlier today at 0.71679. Stay above, keeps the buyers in firm control and the trend move going.

Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, note the corrective move of the high from last week at 0.7167 area, stalled near the rising 200 bar MA and the 38.2% of the trend move higher.

The next leg higher off the .7146 level moved above the 100 bar MA, stayed above it and launched higher.

The last few hours has seen the price consolidate and in process, trade above and below the 100 bar MA (blue line at 0.71819 – and moving higher). However, the price remains well above the 38.2% that 50% retracement area between 0.7175 at 0.7169, and also while above the rising 200 bar moving average at 0.7172 currently.

If the trend is to continue, staying above those levels (the 50% is also near the 0.7167 level from the hourly chart), would keep the buyers still in play and in control. Move below and all bets are off. I would expect more downside probing on the failure to stay above last week’s high and the other aforementioned technical levels.

There are some pairs that can’t get out of the way this week, and continue to trade in a narrow range (
 
 EURUSD 
EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the dollar of the United States (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many euros are needed in order to purchase one dollar. For example, when the EUR/USD is trading at 1.2, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 1.2 dollars.  Why the EUR/USD is the Most Popular Trading PairCompared to all tradable currencies, the euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, behind only the US dollar. This currency pair is the most traded and liquid currency pair on the market.As the most popular trading pair, the EUR/USD is a staple of every brokerage offering and often has some of the lowest spreads relative to other pairs. Ultimately, the currency follows the two most economic blocs in the world and sees the most volume for this reason.The EUR/USD has a wide range of factors that influence its rates. From the EUR side, economic data in the Eurozone as well as internal factors in the bloc can easily impact rates. Even small member states can effectively weigh on the EUR, as seen in Greece during bailout talks in the 2010s. Alternatively, developments in the United States and the Federal Reserve commonly affect the EUR/USD. Many examples include the bailouts during the Financial crisis, tax cuts during the Trump Administration, and Covid-19 relief measures, among others.

The EUR/USD is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the dollar of the United States (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many euros are needed in order to purchase one dollar. For example, when the EUR/USD is trading at 1.2, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 1.2 dollars.  Why the EUR/USD is the Most Popular Trading PairCompared to all tradable currencies, the euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, behind only the US dollar. This currency pair is the most traded and liquid currency pair on the market.As the most popular trading pair, the EUR/USD is a staple of every brokerage offering and often has some of the lowest spreads relative to other pairs. Ultimately, the currency follows the two most economic blocs in the world and sees the most volume for this reason.The EUR/USD has a wide range of factors that influence its rates. From the EUR side, economic data in the Eurozone as well as internal factors in the bloc can easily impact rates. Even small member states can effectively weigh on the EUR, as seen in Greece during bailout talks in the 2010s. Alternatively, developments in the United States and the Federal Reserve commonly affect the EUR/USD. Many examples include the bailouts during the Financial crisis, tax cuts during the Trump Administration, and Covid-19 relief measures, among others.
Read this Term, USDCHF are two examples).

The AUDUSD on the otherhand, is not one of those pairs this week. As a result, traders are “making hay” in that pair this week, and will continue to do so as long as the market allows it.

Falling below the 0.7167 would be needed to stop the hay making in this pair.